Fearless policy negative impact Wall Street firmly believes Trump is "safeguarding " the market
19/11/2024
GMT Eight
The Chief Investment Officer of the American asset management company Bahnsen Group, which manages $65 billion in assets, David Bahnsen, made an optimistic prediction regarding Trump's return to the White House: the U.S. financial markets will benefit. At the same time, this is also a psychological assessment: Bahnsen pointed out that the President-elect is very eager to fit in with Manhattan's financial elite, and he dares not jeopardize their wealth. Bahnsen stated: "The reason he is so focused on the financial markets is that the financial markets represent a kind of validation for him, he has always felt like an outsider in Manhattan throughout his adult life, never receiving the respect or honors he believed he deserved."
This positive view of boosting Wall Street has taken place since Trump won a second term. Bankers, investors, executives, and their advisors are expecting Trump to deliver on his promises of regulatory relaxation and tax cuts. Despite the higher yields on U.S. government bonds indicating that some investors are concerned about increasing budget deficits, and the potential for Trump's promises of mass deportations and high tariffs to lead to inflation, optimists do not believe he will follow through on these promises. They may even find comfort in Trump's chaotic style - assuming Trump's unpredictable habits mean he will abandon his most destructive plans.
This market-dizzying phenomenon is common. Trump promoted a cryptocurrency project in the weeks leading up to the election, causing the price of Bitcoin to surge. Furthermore, investors heavily bought stocks of big banks, betting that Trump, in addition to relaxing regulations, will lead corporate transactions into a new phase. The overall U.S. stock market saw an increase, partly due to his proposal to reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% and his statement that on his first day in office he would dismiss Gary Gensler, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Gensler is not favored by Silicon Valley primarily because of his strict regulations on cryptocurrencies, leading to a sharp decline in Bitcoin, bursting the bubbles of cryptocurrencies, NFTs, Web3.0, and strong complaints from cryptocurrency companies and investors that it will stifle innovation.
Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi warns that overly excited investors are pushing stock prices higher. He said: "If the market is ever liquidated, I will not be surprised, but by then it will be too late - the damage will have been done."
Some are concerned about the potential impact of Trump's plans. Nathalie Molina Nio, co-founder and CEO of the asset management company Known, stated that tax cuts cannot offset harmful policies to the environment and economy. She pointed out: "A mass deportation of crucial labor could have economic consequences."
However, even some pessimistic figures, such as the "Dr. Doom" and renowned pessimistic macroeconomic advisor Nouriel Roubini, remain calm - stating that Trump's favoritism towards the markets, coupled with the right advisors, can curb his radical tendencies by making his actual policies "more moderate".
Furthermore, two Wall Street executives who requested to remain anonymous when discussing politics also maintain an optimistic view for similar reasons. One is a former banker who has been with Trump for many years. He said that looser regulations, a nemesis for large corporations, and the expected removal of Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan - these two factors will make banks more profitable and enable them to engage in a wave of mergers and acquisitions. He said that Trump's promised protectionism may turn out to be hollow rhetoric. Another executive involved in private equity investment stated that bankers and venture capitalists are busy preparing for transactions as relaxed regulations are just around the corner. As for the complexities of inflationary forces? He said those are more blurry and distant.
Tom Glocer, Chief Independent Director at Morgan Stanley, also has no doubt about this viewpoint, stating that antitrust scrutiny on mergers "will lose steam - more importantly, there will be no chilling effect." However, he is also concerned that the market is better at considering such changes than what he calls the "chaos risk". It is difficult for investors to predict how likely it is for chaos to occur if Trump refuses to step down after his second term, as he attempted to do after his first term.
Why are U.S. stock markets rising? Because investors believe the market itself will keep Trump in line. Of course, this is a circular logic. If things do not develop as hoped, it may look even worse.