Goldman Sachs joins the bullish camp! Raises S&P 500 year-end target for 2025 to 6500 points.
19/11/2024
GMT Eight
Goldman Sachs expects that driven by strong CKH HOLDINGS corporate earnings and economic growth, the S&P 500 index will reach 6,500 points by the end of next year, which is consistent with the basic forecast given by Morgan Stanley. This target implies a 10.3% increase from the closing price of the benchmark index. Goldman Sachs had previously set a 12-month target for the S&P 500 index at 6,300 points.
The bank's chief equity strategist David Kostin wrote in the report, "In our fundamental macro outlook, economic and corporate profits will continue to grow, and bond yields will remain near current levels."
Yesterday, Morgan Stanley analysts also made similar predictions. Michael Wilson, a Morgan Stanley strategist known for his bearish views on US stocks, expressed optimism about the outlook for US stocks in 2025. With economic growth improving and further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the S&P 500 index is expected to close around 6,500 next year.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States will grow by 2.5% in 2025, and corporate earnings will grow by 11%. At the same time, the bank pointed out the upside and downside risks of US stocks, namely, a more dovish Federal Reserve could boost the stock market, while Trump's tariff plans and higher bond yields could put pressure.
Meanwhile, it is expected that by 2025, the performance of the "Big Seven" in the US stock market will continue to outperform the other components of the S&P 500 index. However, Goldman Sachs stated that the performance of the Big Seven will only be about 7 percentage points higher, which is the smallest gap in seven years.
"Although the 'micro' earnings story supports continued strong performance, risks from more 'macro' factors such as economic growth and trade policy tend to favor 493 companies."