"Tech giant" Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) is deeply embroiled in an antitrust dilemma as the US Department of Justice will urge the sale of Chrome.
19/11/2024
GMT Eight
The senior officials of the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice in the United States have decided to request a judge to force the US "tech giant" Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) to sell its profit-critical Chrome browser business, which would be a historic blow to one of the world's largest tech companies, and also means that Alphabet Inc. Class C is deeply embroiled in antitrust issues, and the "splitting moment" seems to be approaching.
Analysts generally believe that Alphabet Inc. Class C may be the only tech giant among the "Big Seven Tech Giants" in the United States targeted by the Trump administration in the upcoming "Trump 2.0 era", including Trump supporters like Vice President-elect JD Vance, who have repeatedly emphasized the company's bias against conservatives, and Trump himself has expressed support for splitting up the giant in his first term.
According to reports citing sources familiar with the matter, the Department of Justice will ask a judge to push Alphabet Inc. Class C to take measures related to artificial intelligence and its Android smartphone operating system. The judge previously ruled in August that Alphabet Inc. Class C illegally monopolized the search engine market. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that antitrust officials and states involved in this antitrust case also plan to suggest to federal judge Amit Mehta on Wednesday to enforce data licensing requirements.
If Mehta accepts these proposals, they could reshape the online search market and the booming AI industry. The case was filed during the Trump administration and continues during the Biden presidency. This marks the most severe antitrust action taken by the US government against another tech giant since Washington's failed attempt to break up Microsoft Corporation 20 years ago.
The global web browsing platform Chrome is crucial for Alphabet Inc. Class C's core business - advertising. The company is able to view the activities of logged-in users and use this data to target promotions more effectively, which brings in most of its revenue. Alphabet Inc. Class C has also been using Chrome to guide users to its flagship generative AI product Gemini, which has the potential to evolve from question-and-answer AI chatbot Siasun Robot & Automation into a personal AI assistant that follows users on the web.
Lee-Anne Muehlan, Vice President of Regulatory Affairs at Alphabet Inc. Class C, said that the Department of Justice "continues to push for an aggressive agenda that goes far beyond the legal issues of this case". She added, "Government intervention in this way will harm consumers, developers, and America's technological leadership just when these are critically needed."
The Department of Justice declined to comment on the matter.
Under the influence of this negative news, in after-hours trading, Alphabet Inc. Class C's stock price fell 1.8% to $172.16. As of Monday's close of the US stock market, Alphabet Inc. Class C's stock price has risen 25% this year.
Chrome access
Sources familiar with the matter revealed that US antitrust enforcement agencies hope that a judge will order Alphabet Inc. Class C to sell Chrome browser - the most widely used browser globally, as it represents the key access point for many users to its exclusive search engine.
Sources said that if other aspects of the antitrust remedial measures against Alphabet Inc. Class C create a more competitive market, the US government may choose to decide later whether to sell the Chrome business. According to statistics from web traffic analysis service company StatCounter, Chrome browser has a market share of 61% in the US browser market.
Over the past three months, government lawyers have met with dozens of companies to prepare the relevant recommendations. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that states involved in the antitrust case against Alphabet Inc. Class C are still considering adding some proposals, and some details may change.
Sources said that antitrust officials recently abandoned a more severe option project, which was to force Alphabet Inc. Class C to sell the Android smartphone system.
Alphabet Inc. Class C plans to appeal
Judge Mehta ruled in August that Alphabet Inc. Class C violated US antitrust laws in the online search and "search text advertising" markets. Previously, Alphabet Inc. Class C underwent a 10-week trial. Alphabet Inc. Class C has stated its plan to appeal multiple times.
US Judge Mehta is scheduled to hold a two-week hearing in April to determine what changes Alphabet Inc. Class C must make to correct or remedy its illegal anticompetitive behavior, and plans to issue a final ruling by August 2025, giving Alphabet Inc. Class C enough time to coordinate remedial measures.
Sources said that the agency and state governments have decided to recommend that Alphabet Inc. Class C authorize the results and data of its globally popular search engine, and provide more options for websites to prevent their content from being exclusively used by Alphabet Inc. Class C's artificial intelligence products.
Sources said that antitrust enforcement agencies are also preparing to propose that Alphabet Inc. ClC will separate its Android smartphone operating system from other products under Alphabet Inc. Class C (including search engine and Google Play mobile app store), which are currently being sold in a bundled sales model. They also plan to request Alphabet Inc. Class C to share more information with advertisers and give them greater control over the display location of ads.The U.S. Department of Justice and state attorneys general listed all these options in a preliminary document submitted in October, as well as banning the signing of various exclusive contracts, which is the core of the Alphabet Inc. Class C case.
If Alphabet Inc. Class C really does face forced divestiture due to antitrust cases, it will also depend on whether interested large buyers can be found. Companies with the ability and interest in acquiring this search wealth, such as Amazon.com, Inc. and Microsoft Corporation, are also facing some antitrust scrutiny cases that may prevent similar mega-acquisition deals.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mandip Singh said in an email, "I think the likelihood of a tech giant making a bid is extremely low." But he added that he could see relatively small buyers like the developer of AI chatbot Siasun Robot&AutomationChatGPT, OpenAI. "This will allow them to not only gain a larger distribution channel, but also carry out advertising business to complement their consumer-side AI chatbot Siasun Robot&Automation subscription service."
AI Overviews
Alphabet Inc. Class C will now display AI Overviews at the top of the search page to provide the most suitable search answers quickly based on AI large models. While major websites can choose not to allow Alphabet Inc. Class C to use their information to create AI large models, they cannot afford to not provide overview information, as this could cause them to rank lower and have less coverage in search results, making it harder to attract business customers.
Many website publishers have complained that this feature significantly reduces traffic and advertising revenue, as AI Overviews lead search engine users to get answers directly, prompting many to refuse to click to view the data that supports these results.
According to sources, in terms of data licensing, antitrust enforcers plan to propose two most likely choices: Alphabet Inc. Class C selling its basic "clicks and queries" exclusive data and separately selling its compiled annotated list of joint search results.
The company currently sells joint search results but with some restrictions, such as not allowing use on mobile devices such as smartphones. If Alphabet Inc. Class C is forced to combine its search results, competitors' search engines and AI startups will be able to quickly improve their search quality or AI chatbot content generation quality, and the data source will enable other companies to build their own customized search engines.