Germany's political situation is in turmoil. There are divisions within the ruling party and the future is uncertain for Chancellor Scholz's re-election.

Facing pressure within the Social Democratic Party to step down, German Chancellor Scholz has received some support from within the party. As of the time of writing, the yield on German 10-year government bonds has slightly increased to 2.388%. It is reported that as the new session of the German Bundestag election approaches, divisions within the ruling Social Democratic Party over the candidate for chancellor are becoming increasingly public. Social Democratic Party MPs Jo Re Winegarten and Johannes IAT Automobile Technology publicly called on Scholz on November 17 to abandon seeking re-election and instead let Defense Minister Boris Pistorius represent the Social Democratic Party as the next chancellor, citing Pistorius's much higher public support rate than Scholz. In response, Social Democratic Party leader Lars Klingbeil expressed support for Scholz last Sunday. In addition, Bernd Westphal, the party's economic policy spokesperson in parliament, said, "I suggest that our party stay united and focus clearly on our chancellor candidate Scholz's campaign." He called on party leaders to pass a resolution by the end of the year to clarify the issue and nominate Scholz (as the chancellor candidate). Data shows that Scholz announced the dismissal of Finance Minister Lindner on November 6. Lindner then led the Free Democratic Party to withdraw from the current coalition government. This means that the "traffic light" ruling coalition led by Scholz's Social Democratic Party, together with the Free Democratic Party and the Green Party, has collapsed. The catalyst for the ultimate rupture was the serious differences between the Social Democratic Party and the Free Democratic Party over the 2025 fiscal budget and the direction of German economic policy. Lindner demanded a "fundamental change in economic policy" by the government, advocating strict adherence to the constitution's "debt brake" clause, cutting welfare programs substantially to save expenses, and opposing tax increases. The Social Democratic Party, on the other hand, wanted to raise the debt ceiling, increase government investments to stimulate economic growth. Scholz is scheduled to initiate a vote of confidence in the chancellor in the Bundestag on December 16. Since the ruling parties, the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party, together do not have a majority of seats, if the vote of confidence does not pass, the Bundestag will be dissolved according to the German Basic Law, and new elections will be held within 60 days, with the candidate nominated by the winning party becoming the new government chancellor. The vote is expected to take place on February 23 next year. The Social Democratic Party is scheduled to hold a convention on January 11 next year, when the candidate for chancellor will be announced. A poll released on November 15 by the German Luxembourg Broadcasting Corporation - Independent Television Station showed that 66% of respondents believe that Pistorius should lead the Social Democratic Party in the election, with only 18% supporting Scholz. Approximately 62% believe that if Pistorius leads as the flagship candidate, the Social Democratic Party's prospects will be much better than previously predicted. Additionally, recent polls show that the Union parties, formed by the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union, are expected to win the elections, with the Union parties parliamentary group leader and CDU leader Friedrich Merz likely to become the next chancellor. The support rate of the Social Democratic Party is less than half that of the Union parties, ranking third, even behind the Alternative for Germany party, which is collectively rejected by mainstream political parties.