Middle Finger Research Institute: The real estate market showed a "phase-wise stabilization" in October, and it is expected that the market activity will continue in the short term.

The research institute of China Development Institute recently stated that, based on data, at the national level, the year-on-year decline in the cumulative sales volume and sales area of new commercial housing from January to October continued to narrow. The cumulative year-on-year decline in sales area has narrowed for 5 consecutive months, and the decline in sales volume has narrowed for 6 consecutive months, indicating that market confidence has been restored. Currently, it appears that the real estate market saw a "phase of stabilization" in October, and it is expected that market activity will continue in the short term. New home sales in November are expected to maintain a certain scale. December is a crucial period for real estate companies' performance, and if relevant incremental policies continue to be implemented, the effects of previous policies are likely to be consolidated, leading to a further narrowing of the year-on-year decline in nationwide real estate sales. In October, regulatory departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development continued to implement new real estate policies to boost market confidence. On October 21, the central bank lowered interest rates, bringing the 5-year LPR down 25 basis points to 3.6%. On November 7, the Ministry of Natural Resources proposed detailed rules for using local government special bond funds to reclaim and repurchase idle land. On November 13, the Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development optimized various real estate tax policies such as deed tax, value-added tax, and land appreciation tax to further reduce the cost of purchasing homes and the financial pressure on enterprises. On November 14, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and Ministry of Finance issued a notice proposing that projects with balanced funding at the prefectural level and mature compensation plans can all be included in the policy support range, expanding the support range from the initial 35 super large and ultra-large cities and cities with a permanent population of over 3 million to nearly 300 prefectural-level and above cities. At the local level, Tianjin, Chengdu, Xi'an, among others, canceled sales restrictions in October, while Shanghai, Chongqing, Qingdao, and others optimized provident fund policies, involving aspects such as reducing down payment ratios, increasing the maximum loan amount, and supporting the use of provident funds for down payments. Demand: From January to October, the sales area of new commercial housing was 780 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%, narrowing by 1.3 percentage points compared to January to September. The sales volume of new commercial housing was 7.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%. Graph: Year-on-year growth rate of cumulative sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing nationwide from 2014 to present Data source: China Index Data CREIS, National Bureau of Statistics Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/ Sales Area: From January to October 2024, the sales area of new commercial housing was 780 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%, narrowing by 1.3 percentage points compared to January to September. Among them, the sales area of new residential properties was 650 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%, narrowing by 1.5 percentage points compared to January to September, while the sales area of office buildings decreased by 9.9%, and the sales area of commercial operational properties decreased by 6.0%. Sales Volume: From January to October 2024, the sales volume of new commercial housing was 7.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%, narrowing by 1.8 percentage points compared to January to September. Among them, the sales volume of new residential properties was 6.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.0%, narrowing by 2.0 percentage points compared to January to September, while the sales volume of office buildings decreased by 12.8%, and the sales volume of commercial operational properties decreased by 13.7%. Supply: From January to October, real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, and the newly started construction area of houses decreased by 22.6% year-on-year. Graph: Cumulative development investment in real estate and housing and its year-on-year growth rate from 2014 to present Data source: China Index Data CREIS, National Bureau of Statistics Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/ Real Estate Development Investment: From January to October 2024, the national real estate development investment was 86 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%. Among them, the investment in residential development was 66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to January to September, accounting for 76.1% of real estate development investment. Graph: Cumulative new construction and construction area of houses nationwide and its year-on-year growth rate from 2014 to present Data source: China Index Data CREIS, National Bureau of Statistics Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/ New Construction Area of Houses: From January to October 2024, the new construction area of houses nationwide was 610 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%. Among them, the new construction area of residential properties was 450 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7%. Construction Area of Houses: From January to October 2024, the construction area of houses nationwide was 7.21 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%. Among them, the construction area of residential properties was 5.04 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%. Completion Area of Houses: From January to October 2024, the completion area of houses nationwide was 420 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.9%. Among them, the completion area of residential properties was 310 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%. Capital Source: From January to October, the funds in place for real estate companies were 87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%. Graph: Year-on-year growth rate of funds in place for real estate companies nationwide since 2015 and comparison of year-on-year growth rates of various fund sources from January to October 2024 Data source: China Index Data CREIS, National Bureau of Statistics Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/ Funds in Place for Real Estate Development Enterprises: From January to October 2024, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%, narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to January to September. Domestic Loans: From January to October 2024, domestic loans were 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%; accounting for 14.2%. Self-raised Funds: From January to October 2024, self-raised funds were 3.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%; accounting for 36.1%. Deposits and Prepayments: From January to October 2024, deposits and prepayments were 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.7%, narrowing by 2.1 percentage points compared to January to September; accounting for 30.3%. Personal Mortgage Loans: From January to October 2024, personal mortgage loans were 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.8%, narrowing by 2.1 percentage points compared to January to September; accounting for 14%0.3%.Je suis vraiment dsol, je ne peux pas faire cela.