Guotai Junan: Holiday policies are being implemented, which is beneficial for local consumption.

Guotai Junan released a research report stating that the holiday policy being implemented is in line with expectations. The revised holiday arrangements meet expectations as statutory holidays are significantly lengthened. Local consumption time increases, the possibility of forming extended holidays by using annual leave increases, which is beneficial for local consumption: supermarkets, department stores, restaurants, as well as outbound travel agencies and domestic long-haul tours are expected to benefit. Event: The State Council recently decided to make the following modifications to the "National Holidays and Memorial Days Holiday Rules": 1) Increase statutory holidays by two days, which are the eve of the lunar new year and May 2nd. 2) Can arrange unified holidays and make up for rest days reasonably, combined with implementing the paid annual leave system, effectively forming longer holidays. Generally, statutory holidays before and after holidays should not exceed 6 consecutive working days. Guotai Junan's main points are as follows: Statutory holidays are lengthened, increasing local consumption time. Comparison of holiday arrangements for 2024 and 2025: Holiday arrangements for 2024: New Year's Day 3 days + Spring Festival 8 days + Tomb Sweeping Day 3 days + Labor Day 5 days + Dragon Boat Festival 3 days + Mid-Autumn Festival 3 days + National Day 7 days; Number of statutory holidays: 11 days; Number of consecutive short holidays that can be combined: 32 days (does not include days taken separately). Holiday arrangements for 2025: New Year's Day 1 day + Spring Festival 8 days + Tomb Sweeping Day 3 days + Labor Day 5 days + Dragon Boat Festival 3 days + National Day/Mid-Autumn Festival 8 days; Number of statutory holidays: 13 days; Number of consecutive short holidays that can be combined: 27 days. 1) The increase of two statutory holidays is more beneficial for local consumption. 2) According to the latest holiday arrangements, the actual number of consecutive short holidays that can be combined is 27 days for 2025, compared to 32 days for 2024, with the main difference being that New Year's Day is not a rest day and National Day coincides with Mid-Autumn Festival. 3) The increased Spring Festival and Labor Day can form holidays as in 2024 (8 days for Spring Festival, 5 days for Labor Day). 4) Therefore, considering only statutory holiday time, it will have more catalytic effects on local consumption, benefiting restaurants, retail, department stores, and jewelry stores. However, considering personal annual leave will create more opportunities for long holiday periods. The "Rules" encourage fully utilizing paid holidays and annual leave to form longer holidays. This article analyzes the situation of combining annual leave to form longer holidays: In 2024, long holidays can be achieved with annual leave: Tomb Sweeping Day: 3 statutory + 1 annual leave = 4 days; Labor Day: 2 weekends + 2 annual leave + 5 statutory days = 9 days; Mid-Autumn Festival: 4 annual leave + 3 statutory + 2 weekends = 9 days. In 2025, long holidays can be achieved with annual leave: New Year's Day: 1 statutory + 2 annual leave + 2 weekends = 5 days; Spring Festival: 8 statutory + 3 annual leave + 2 weekends = 13 days; Labor Day: 2 weekends + 3 annual leave + 5 days of Labor Day = 10 days; National Day: 8 statutory + 2 annual leave + 2 weekends = 12 days. 1) With the consideration of using annual leave, the new version of the "Rules" shows a significant increase in opportunities for extended holidays compared to 2024, which could potentially benefit long-haul tours and outbound travel demand. 2) The actual implementation still depends on the specific situations of companies and individuals in terms of their annual leave and paid leave. Risk warnings: Extreme weather affecting travel demand; macroeconomic fluctuations affecting consumption capacity; changes in travel demand may divert to certain destinations and travel modes.