Multiple agencies state that Trump's victory will "affect" the bond market, with US bond yields possibly rising to 5% or higher.
13/11/2024
GMT Eight
Investment firms Franklin Templeton, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and T. Rowe Price all believe that as the market digests the impact of Trump's victory on the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields will rise. Franklin Templeton stated that as the U.S. government increases debt supply to cover trillions of dollars in deficits, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries could climb to 5% or higher.
Sonal Desai, Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, said in an interview, "It is reasonable for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to reach 4.5% to 5%." She mentioned that if investors see a "significant expansion" of the U.S. deficit, the U.S. benchmark yield could exceed 5%.
Desai, along with J.P. Morgan Asset Management and T. Rowe Price, warned that as investors begin to digest the impact of Donald Trump's re-election on the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields could increase. Since the election on November 5th, U.S. bond prices have been fluctuating as traders weigh whether the federal budget deficit will expand and if the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates.
Unfilled contract data shows that traders have been benefiting from increased positions in anticipation of further declines in U.S. bonds due to Trump's promised policies reigniting inflation. Any signs of higher-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, to be released later on Wednesday, could further encourage short sellers.
On Wednesday, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond was 4.42%, up from the closing price of 4.27% on the day of the election. On November 6th, as Trump's victory became clear, the yield rose to 4.48%, reaching its highest level since July.
Desai stated regarding the deficit, "Whether it can surpass 5% depends on the size of expansion. The U.S. economy may be able to withstand it."