350, 6000, 44000, 88000! Last night these four numbers interpreted "Trump trade"...
12/11/2024
GMT Eight
350, 6000, 44000, 88000 - Do you know the meaning behind these numbers?
If you are a global market investor and have personally experienced the market trends across asset classes on Monday, then at this moment, I believe that you have already associated these sets of numbers with their meanings.
350 (USD) is the closing price of Tesla last night - this Monday, the global electric car leader once again rose by 9%. Since the U.S. election on November 5th, Tesla's stock price has increased by over 39%, and the company's market value has increased by over $300 billion. As investors believe that the election of Trump would bring great benefits to Musk's electric car manufacturer, the sharp change in market sentiment has also rapidly generated a snowball effect in the stock's rise.
6000 points and 44000 points, are the closing points of the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, respectively, last night, surpassing two new integer thresholds for the first time in history. Trump's victory not only favors some typical Trump concept stocks, but also has a visible push on the overall U.S. stock market index. The market expects that his tax cuts and relaxed financial regulations may further stimulate the "animal spirits" in the market. Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, wrote in a report on Monday, "The decisive victory of the Republicans has ignited the 'animal spirits', despite high expectations."
Lastly, the number 88000 (USD), twice as high as 44000, is the new integer threshold broken by Bitcoin last night. Trump's support for digital assets and the prospect of many lawmakers supporting cryptocurrencies have together fueled Bitcoin's first breakthrough of this major integer threshold. In fact, since the election day on November 5th, Bitcoin has successively broken through 14 major integer thresholds (measured in thousands of USD) in just a few trading days.
Barclays' European stock strategy director Emmanuel Cau said, "We continue to see people eager to join the Trump trade early."
Mabrouk Chetouane, Global Market Strategy Director at Societe Generale Investment Management, said that the performance of cryptocurrencies and other so-called "Trump trades" suggests that people are increasingly expecting the former president to adopt a more lenient regulatory approach in his second term. He said, "Even if trade protectionist measures are strengthened further, investors are willing to take risks." He was referring to Trump's plans to significantly increase tariffs on imported goods.
It is worth mentioning that, even though the trends in the foreign exchange and bond markets are not as dazzling as the breakthroughs in the above stock and cryptocurrency markets, the Trump trades in these two vast markets are still continuing at the beginning of this week.
Trump's decisive victory has led traders to price in the tax cuts and tariff promises of the incoming president, pushing up the dollar and sparking sales of U.S. government bonds.
The dollar index closed at 105.51 in New York on Monday, a 0.48% increase for the day, hitting a high of 105.70 since July. The euro fell to its lowest level in nearly seven months against the dollar on Monday, as investors feared that the new White House government may impose tariffs that could harm the eurozone economy. Since Trump's win in the U.S. presidential election last week, sparking concerns about the new government possibly imposing tariffs, non-U.S. currencies like the euro have been steadily declining.
The U.S. Treasury market was closed on Monday for Veterans Day. However, the futures market still showed some noticeable selling pressure. As of Monday afternoon at 3:30 New York time, 10-year U.S. Treasury futures fell by about 11 points, implying a yield level of about 4.35%. If this level is maintained when Asian markets open on Tuesday, it means that the 10-year bond yield will be about 5 basis points higher than Friday's close.
LPL Financial's strategy team wrote in a report on Monday, "Positive economic data, the possibility of the Federal Reserve being too dovish, and the Trump government releasing more policy details could all push up bond yields, and only negative economic surprises will cause yields to drop significantly from their current levels."
However, it can be foreseen that as the Trump team begins to discuss specific cabinet picks after the election, and continues to attract the attention of market participants, the momentum of a series of "Trump trades" may continue for a while.
Chris Larkin, head of E*Trade, a platform under Morgan Stanley, also said that with the U.S. elections and another rate cut now in the past, the question is whether bulls can continue to push the market to new highs.
Larkin believes, "Apart from profit-taking that may occur after such a strong rally, Wednesday's U.S. inflation data may also determine whether the market can maintain its gains."
This article is reproduced from Caishang Society, GMTEight editor: Chen Wenfang.