The Renminbi exchange rate is strong, and the "currency exchange + fixed deposit" products are favored.

date
26/09/2024
avatar
GMT Eight
In recent times, the RMB exchange rate has shown a significant appreciation trend. On September 26th, the offshore RMB against the US dollar exchange rate rose by over 300 basis points during intraday trading, once again breaking through the important 7.00 mark. Industry insiders believe that the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to maintain a strong trend, and RMB investment products that are safe and have high returns will receive more attention. Multiple factors contribute to the continuous appreciation of the RMB On September 25th this year, the offshore RMB exchange rate broke through the 7.0 mark for the first time since May last year, reaching a 16-month high. Looking at the trend in recent months, the RMB exchange rate has shown a strong appreciation trend. On September 25th, the onshore RMB against the US dollar exchange rate reached a high of 7.0160, up 2794 basis points from the highest point in July; the offshore RMB against the US dollar exchange rate reached a high of 6.9951, up over 3000 basis points from the highest point in July. Industry insiders believe that this RMB appreciation is partly due to favorable policies. On September 24th, the People's Bank of China announced interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions, and increased support for the real estate industry, which effectively boosted market confidence and became a key catalyst for the rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate; on the other hand, in September this year, the Federal Reserve significantly cut interest rates, the US dollar index trended downward, weakening the external pressure on the RMB exchange rate and also driving the passive appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar. RMB still has room for appreciation Currently, the market sentiment towards the RMB is bullish, and the previously pent-up demand for foreign exchange settlement is expected to be further released, providing the RMB with potential for further appreciation. Analysts believe that the current RMB exchange rate is mainly influenced by the trend of the US dollar and the domestic macroeconomic situation. The environment facing the RMB is still generally favorable, and it is expected that the RMB will be able to operate within a balanced range. In addition, except for the Bank of Japan, the monetary policies of major economies have entered into a rate-cutting cycle, the momentum of the US dollar's appreciation has weakened, and it is possible that there will be a second wave of capital inflows into RMB assets, bringing positive effects to the RMB exchange rate. The recent statements of regulatory authorities have also filled the market with confidence in the stability of the RMB exchange rate. On September 24th, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated at a press conference that the recent adjustments to the monetary policies of major economies have significantly eased the pressure on RMB depreciation, and have turned towards appreciation. Pan Gongsheng believes that there are still significant uncertainties in the inflation, economy, US presidential election, and geopolitical conflicts in Europe and the US, but from the perspective of the domestic situation in China, the RMB exchange rate still has a solid foundation for stability, and expectations need to be strengthened to prevent the formation of one-sided and self-fulfilling expectations in the foreign exchange market, guard against the risk of exchange rate overshooting, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. The central bank's supervisory "Financial Times" also stated that from a medium to long-term perspective, the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate is solid. Macroscopically, the exchange rate is fundamentally determined by economic fundamentals. In recent years, China's foreign exchange market has continuously strengthened its resilience, enterprise hedge ratios and the proportion of RMB cross-border settlements have significantly increased, and market participants are facing exchange rate changes more rationally, helping to reduce the possibility of large fluctuations in the exchange rate. And from historical experience, the stable trend of the RMB in the future is also trustworthy. As can be seen in the chart above, the exchange rate of the RMB against the Hong Kong dollar has experienced a certain degree of fluctuations in recent years. In March 2022, the exchange rate of the RMB against the Hong Kong dollar reached a recent high, with 1 RMB equaling 1.2390 Hong Kong dollars. As of 7 pm on September 26th, the exchange rate of the RMB against the Hong Kong dollar was 1 RMB to 1.1095 Hong Kong dollars. Looking at the historical trend, there is still considerable room for appreciation of the RMB against the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar. RMB fixed deposit products attract attention With the prospect of RMB appreciation, how to efficiently invest and manage finances has become a focus of attention for professionals in various industries. Industry insiders believe that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts will prompt some US dollar funds to leave the United States and enter markets with higher capital returns. Currently, China's economic foundation is relatively stable in the world, and it is predicted that a considerable amount of capital will enter China. For China, RMB appreciation will increase international purchasing power and be beneficial for asset appreciation. In a situation where both currency and assets are expected to steadily appreciate, choosing safe and high-yielding RMB investment products is a wise choice in the current market environment. Recently, Zhongan Bank introduced a "currency exchange + fixed deposit" one-stop product, where users can exchange other currencies for RMB, deposit for 7 days at an annualized rate of 20%; exchanging RMB for a 1-month fixed deposit can yield an annualized rate of 6.3%, while a 3-month fixed deposit can yield an annualized rate of 2.30%. Combining the strong performance of the RMB exchange rate in recent times and the expectation of future appreciation, the attractiveness of RMB assets is on the rise.

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