Golden Week Mid-Autumn Festival Review and National Day Preview: Moviegoers are currently making cautious viewing decisions and paying attention to the box office performance of blockbuster films.

CICC released a research report stating that by the end of the 2024 Mid-Autumn Festival season and approaching the National Day season, as of 9:00 on September 18, 2024, the total box office revenue for the 3-day 2024 Mid-Autumn Festival season reached 390 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Ten films including "Crisis Line," "749 Bureau," "Volunteer Army: Battle for Survival," "Road of Bathing Fire," and "Safe In and Out" have already been scheduled for the National Day season. With the current limited supply of high-quality content, moviegoers are more cautious in their decision-making, and it is expected that the box office performance of the National Day season may be slightly under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of movie box office sales. Key points from CICC: The box office of the Mid-Autumn Festival season has seen a slight increase compared to the small holiday base period, with a limited supply of top content. During the 2024 Mid-Autumn Festival season (September 15-17), the total box office revenue including service fees reached 390 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% (compared to one day in 2023); there were 9.563 million viewers, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year; the average ticket price was 40.54 RMB, slightly down year-on-year. Considering the one-day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday last year (adjacent to the National Day season), the overall performance of the three-day Mid-Autumn Festival season box office this year was relatively flat. In terms of content, the top three films during the 2024 Mid-Autumn Festival season were "Wild Children," "Redemption," and "Decision to Run Away," with only "Wild Children" crossing the billion yuan mark, indicating a lack of top content; in terms of distribution, the trend of downward distribution continued during the Mid-Autumn Festival season, with the market share of top film investment companies remaining basically stable year-on-year, indicating a relatively stable competitive landscape. Several films have already been scheduled for the National Day season, with a relatively diverse range of genres and themes. Films scheduled for the National Day season include "Crisis Line," "749 Bureau," "Volunteer Army: Battle for Survival," "Road of Bathing Fire," "Safe In and Out," etc. The supply of films is diverse, making the competition during this National Day season relatively fierce, with the box office performance expected to be more balanced. With limited supply of high-quality content and cautious movie-viewing decisions from the summer season until now, the current box office performance is under pressure; the film industry still relies on high-quality content supply, and it is suggested to pay attention to the progress of top film scheduling and its boost to industry confidence. It is predicted that the box office for the National Day season under neutral circumstances may decline by 10%, and attention should be paid to the improvement elasticity of the box office for the 2025 Spring Festival season. Taking into account the impact of the holiday base period (the 2023 National Day season was 8 days long) and the current supply of films, with movie-viewing decisions being cautious, the National Day season may still be under pressure, with the box office revenue for the 7-day National Day season in 2024 under neutral circumstances expected to be 24.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 10.0%. According to Maoyan Professional Edition, films scheduled for the year include "Venom: Let There Be Carnage" (10/23), "Jo Yan's Mind" (10/26), "Burning City" (11/1), etc. The current market has low expectations for the box office revenue for the year, and it is recommended to pay attention to the demand boost and marginal improvement in box office revenue from the release of top content for the 2025 Spring Festival season (Chinese New Year on the first day of the first month) and reserve films like "Feng Shen Part 2," "Operation Long Dragon," "Nezha: Brat of the Sea," "Dumpling Queen," "Nameless," "Detective Tang 1900," "Turn the Flower Open," etc. Risk: The quality and box office revenue of films may not meet expectations, competition may intensify, and industry regulations may tighten.