Cui Dongshu: The enthusiasm of consumers to wait and see has been stimulated. The quality of retail growth in the passenger vehicle market in August is relatively high.

Secretary General Cui Dongshu of the China Passenger Car Association released the "Analysis of August Trends in the Automotive Sub-Segment Market and Manufacturer Competition." It points out that as the national "old for new" policy gradually takes effect, corresponding policy measures are introduced and followed up in various regions, Beijing issues license plates to drive consumption, and the price war of new car models cools down temporarily. The promotion during the "618" shopping festival drives the end-of-year sales push, sparking the enthusiasm of consumers who were previously waiting and watching. In August, the national passenger car market maintained a relatively good development stage. Due to facing non-RDE vehicle handling last August, and this year's tax exemption policy for micro electric cars under 200 kilometers ending at the end of May, the retail growth quality in August this year is quite high. 1. The automotive passenger and commercial sectors took a good start in 2024 In recent years, the passenger and commercial sectors have shown significant differentiation. This year, the passenger car market performed relatively well in terms of growth from January to August, influenced by policies and the Chinese New Year. The commercial vehicle market only started to recover after Chinese New Year and showed a relatively stable trend from January to August. 2. The automotive market had a good start in 2024 From January to August 2024, the total cumulative sales of automobiles reached 18.76 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 2.8%. In August, the total sales of automobiles reached 2.45 million units, a decrease of 4% year-on-year but an increase of 8.7% month-on-month. The automotive market in 2023 started with a low opening but picked up later, with a clear overshoot towards the end of the year. Sales in February showed a significant decline compared to the previous year, but there was a significant rebound in August, as the market gradually recovered from the slump caused by the price war. Total vehicle sales in 2019 were 25.7687 million units, a decrease of 8.1%; in 2020, total vehicle sales were 25.31 million units, a decrease of 1.9%; in 2021, total vehicle sales were 26.27 million units, an increase of 3.8%, finally achieving positive growth exceeding performance in 2019; in 2022, total vehicle sales were 26.7557 million units, an increase of 1.9%; in 2023, total vehicle sales were 30.09 million units, an increase of 12.4%. 3. Sharp differentiation among major automotive groups Compared to the chart for 2021, some automotive companies showed strong performance in 2022, leading to severe differentiation in industry growth rates. The outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of 2022 put significant pressure on traditional automotive companies, especially when combined with the impact of new energy vehicles. State-owned major groups had varying performance, with GAC and Chery performing well, especially in the commercial vehicle and passenger car segments. Northern companies like FAW, Great Wall, and BAIC faced pressure in their performance. The trend in the automotive market was divided by new energy in early 2023. State-owned major groups showed differentiation overall, with some falling behind. New energy companies like BYD performed well; Chery and Tesla also had relatively strong performance in that year. Second-tier automotive companies saw differing performance due to the transformation of old and new energy sources and the continuous losses in new energy vehicles, leading to significant differentiation and a downturn in small and medium-sized enterprises in the independent brand sector. In 2024, the lineup of automotive groups underwent a comprehensive change, with BYD increasing sales volume by reducing prices. Because of the good sales pace in passenger cars and overseas changes, FAW, Changan, and Dongfeng performed well, while SAIC continued to experience a sharp decline. New energy vehicles like BYD and Tesla showed differing growth rates. The automotive market showed relative differentiation in August, with strong consumption in new energy vehicles. Scrap renewal policies led to structural growth in the market, with varying trends among different companies. Some major manufacturers saw significant rebounds in August compared to the previous month, with BYD showing a strong performance compared to July. 4. Trends in production and sales of narrow passenger car enterprises In 2023, total sales of narrow passenger car manufacturers reached 25.5323 million units for the whole year, with a cumulative growth rate of 10.4%. In recent years, the continuous technological innovation of new energy vehicles and the increasing competitiveness of new products have outpaced the introduction of new fuel vehicles. The start of the year's price war in the automotive market started early, with some popular new energy models seeing up to a 20% price reduction. The long time span from the Spring Festival in February to the end of April saw a large number of models participating in price reductions, similar to the number of discounted models throughout the previous year. This led to extreme price sensitivity among consumers in the spring, combined with weak consumer expectations, temporarily suppressing the spring automotive market. Against the backdrop of different taxation and rights for traditional and new energy vehicles, the trend of high growth in new energy vehicles and negative growth in fuel vehicles has become increasingly evident. With the gradual implementation of the national "old for new" policy and the continued subsidies for new energy vehicles in various regions, the consumption purchasing power accumulated in society was released from May to August, driving a strong trend in the new energy vehicle market towards the end of the year. The performance of new energy vehicles exceeded the expectations of the passenger car manufacturers' forecasting teams. From January to August 2024, total narrow passenger car sales reached 15.86 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.1%; in August, total narrow passenger car sales reached 2.1488 million units, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year but an increase of 9.5% month-on-month. Major automotive companies performed well in August, with strong performance by domestic brands, while joint venture companies showed slow improvement. BYD led the way, Chery maintained the second position in August, and GEELY AUTO remained in third place. The joint venture FAW-Volkswagen also showed strength. The lineup of main passenger car manufacturers quickly became divided, with manufacturers focused on new energy vehicles showing stronger performance, especially in the independent sector. For the whole of 2023, the retail cumulative sales of narrow passenger cars by manufacturers reached 21.7 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 6%; from January to August 2024, total narrow passenger car sales reached 13.46 million units, an increase of 2% year-on-year, with 1.9 million units sold in August, a decrease of 1% compared to the previous year. 5. Trends in production and sales of new energy passenger car enterprises In 2022, the sales of new energy passenger cars reached 6.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 96%. The new energy passenger car market in 2023 saw stable growth with 8.87 million units sold. From January to August 2024, sales of 6.61 million new energy passenger cars showed a good trend with a 30% increase, driven by scrap renewal subsidies, manufacturer price reductions, and the introduction of new models. 6. Trends in production and sales of traditional fuel-powered passenger car enterprises In 2023, sales of traditional narrow passenger cars powered by fuel amounted to 16.66 million units, remaining relatively flat compared to the same period in 2022. From January to August 2024, sales of traditional narrow passenger cars reached 9.24 million units, a 10% year-on-year decrease compared to the same period last year, and a 24% decrease in August, marking the largest decline of the year. The continuous decline of conventional passenger cars in the previous period brought significant market pressure. While there was a relative improvement in the trend of traditional cars recently, the continued impact of the drastic price cuts in new energy vehicles will persist.Traditional cars can also stabilize and recover growth.The situation where joint ventures are mainly dominant in conventional passenger car power is gradually changing, with Chery, Geely, and the three leading joint ventures still strong in the market. FAW-Volkswagen is the absolute leader in joint ventures, and the advantage of independent brands in fuel vehicles compared to joint ventures is not obvious, with joint venture car companies still having strong fuel vehicle technology reserves. 7. Trends in Commercial Vehicle Production and Sales The overall trend of the commercial vehicle market is relatively low, with a 30% year-on-year decrease in 2022, showing an unusually low growth rate. In 2023, the total sales volume of broad commercial vehicles among manufacturers reached 4.2977 million units for the whole year, with an accumulated growth rate of 18.6%; from January to August 2024, the total sales volume of broad commercial vehicles reached 2.7662 million units, with an accumulated growth rate of 1.3%; in August, the total sales volume of broad commercial vehicles was 0.2927 million units, a decrease of 11% year-on-year, an increase of 3% month-on-month. The start of 2024 was mainly influenced by the strong base factor in January, followed by stable performance in the high-base period of March to June, and weak growth in commercial vehicles in July and August. The main manufacturers in the commercial vehicle market are SAIC-GM-Wuling, Beiqi Foton, Dongfeng Motor, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Sinotruk Jinan Truck, among which Changan and FAW and WULING MOTORS show relatively strong performance, Jiangling shows relatively stable performance. In the heavy truck segment, China FAW and Sinotruk Jinan Truck have performed well, while some second-tier companies are still under pressure. 8. Trends in Micro Car Production and Sales In 2023, the total sales volume of micro cars from manufacturers reached 0.8824 million units for the whole year, with an accumulated growth rate of 6.3%; from January to August 2024, the total sales volume of micro cars reached 0.4934 million units, with an accumulated decrease of 6.1%; in August, the total sales volume of micro cars was 0.047 million units, a decrease of 30% year-on-year, an increase of 3.3% month-on-month. The trend of Wuling was relatively strong in 2023, especially from August to December. The beginning of 2024 saw a drastic adjustment, with strong performance from March to May. In August 2024, most manufacturers saw a rebound in sales volume, with only SAIC-GM-Wuling showing weaker performance compared to July. 9. Trends in Light Truck Production and Sales In 2023, the total sales volume of trucks from manufacturers reached 2.9273 million units for the whole year, with an accumulated growth rate of 22.8%. From January to August 2024, the total sales volume of trucks reached 1.9527 million units, with an accumulated growth rate of 2.4%; in August, the total sales volume of trucks was 0.2052 million units, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, an increase of 1.4% month-on-month. From January to August 2024, the total sales volume of light trucks reached 1.2371 million units, with an accumulated growth rate of 1.9%; in August, the total sales volume of light trucks was 0.133 million units, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3% month-on-month. The previous high growth in trucks was mainly influenced by the elimination of National III diesel trucks, with strong measures taken in various regions to phase out National III vehicles, leading to a significant increase in replacement vehicles. With a new round of replacement, there is still potential for market growth. In 2024, there is a clear differentiation among the main manufacturers of light trucks, with companies like Xinyuan Automotive experiencing a significant year-on-year increase in August. Chongqing Changan Automobile and Xinyuan Automotive have evolved from strong micro truck companies to strong players in the light truck category. 10. Trends in Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Production and Sales The total sales of medium and heavy trucks were 1.3136 million units in 2019, showing a decrease of 0.9%; 1.778 million units in 2020, showing an increase of 35%; 1.572 million units in 2021, showing a decrease of 12%; 0.7675 million units in 2022, showing a decrease of 51%; and 1.0181 million units in 2023, showing an increase of 32.7%. From January to August 2024, the total sales of medium and heavy trucks reached 0.7156 million units, with an accumulated growth rate of 3.1%; in August, the total sales of medium and heavy trucks were 0.722 million units, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year, an increase of 4.7% month-on-month. The earlier high growth in heavy trucks was mainly driven by the demand growth in road transport driven by e-commerce logistics, coupled with a rapid increase in financial loans. Under the influence of the epidemic, consumer spending has been affected, further strengthening the trend of logistics transportation, as well as factors such as the scrappage and renewal of National III vehicles and investment driving. Due to excessive penetration of automotive finance, problems have gradually emerged, resulting in significant consumer pressure in the auto market. There is a differentiation in the main trends of heavy trucks in 2024, with FAW and Shaanxi exporting strong heavy trucks to Russia, and FAW and Dongfeng heavy trucks in a post-Spring Festival adjustment period. This year, FAW and Shaanxi had a strong start, but the leading heavy trucks, FAW and Dongfeng, still need to strengthen their product competitiveness and market development, with a significant gap between second-tier heavy truck companies and the main market players. 11. Trends in Light Bus Sales In 2023, the total sales volume of buses from manufacturers reached 0.4881 million units for the whole year, with an accumulated growth rate of 19.6%. From January to August 2024, the total sales volume of buses reached 0.3201 million units, with an accumulated growth rate of 7.5%; in August, the total sales volume of buses was 0.4 million units, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year, an increase of 11.9% month-on-month. From January to August 2024, the total sales volume of light buses reached 0.2525 million units, with an accumulated growth rate of 4.1%; in August, the total sales volume of light buses was 0.309 million units, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, an increase of 8.4% month-on-month. In August, Jiangling was the leader in light buses, and other light bus companies also showed good performance. The light bus market has been changing continuously in recent times, with second-tier manufacturers rising. Chang'an has shown strong performance in the past two years, followed by strong performance from SAIC Maxus and Jiangling. SAIC Maxus has shown strong performance in exports. 12. Trends in Large and Medium-Sized Bus Sales In 2023, the total sales volume of large and medium-sized buses from manufacturers reached 0.917 million units for the whole year, with an accumulated growth rate of 3.9%; from January to August 2024, the total sales volume of large and medium-sized buses reached 0.676 million units, with an accumulated growth rate of 22.2%; in August, the total sales volume of large and medium-sized buses was 0.092 million units, an increase of 7% year-on-year, an increase of 25.5% month-on-month. In the past two years, large and medium-sized buses have shown strong performance, with high year-on-year growth mainly due to the rush to subsidize new energy buses, driven by local government initiatives. With the decline of subsidies in the past two years, the decline in large and medium-sized buses has been significant. However, as local governments face financial constraints, the performance of buses in the public transit sector in 2024, while showing growth, is still relatively slow. In 2024, the large bus market is still in theRelying on the chaos mainly caused by new energy buses, with the policy withdrawal, the bus market is showing signs of over-expansion, and the market for large and medium-sized buses will continue to fluctuate at a low level in 2024.Traducir al ingls: "Hola, cmo ests hoy?"