Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures rose together, initial jobless claims and PPI data are the focus of tonight.

1. Before the US stock market opened on Thursday, the futures of the three major stock indexes in the US all rose. As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 0.19%, the S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.18%, and the Nasdaq futures rose by 0.19%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index rose by 1.27%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.83%, the France CAC40 index rose by 0.89%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose by 1.37%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 1.68% to $68.44 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 1.54% to $71.70 per barrel. Stock news US inflation data sparks rate cut expectations, focus on initial jobless claims and PPI data tonight. With the release of US CPI data, attention now shifts to US PPI and initial jobless claims data for new trading incentives. On Thursday at 20:30 Beijing time, the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims data for the week ending September 7th in the US will be released, expected to be 230,000, compared to 227,000 the previous week. Due to the Fed's high attention to the health of the labor market, initial jobless claims data has become more important. If the number of initial jobless claims exceeds the expected 230,000, it may revive expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed. At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the US will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which may also help the market assess the scale of the Fed's rate cut in September. Surveys show that the August PPI is expected to increase by 0.1% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year. In addition, the core PPI is expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year in August. Dim prospects for the oil market! IEA: Global oil demand growth is "sharply slowing down" OPEC+ production cuts are also of no avail. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report stating that global oil demand growth is "sharply slowing down," pushing oil prices to their lowest level in three years. The IEA stated that global oil consumption increased by 800,000 barrels per day in the first half of this year, only a third of the growth seen in the same period in 2023. This is the lowest level since the sharp drop in oil demand during the 2020 pandemic. The head of the agency, Fatih Birol, said in an interview in Paris on Wednesday that the economic growth of major consuming countries is slowing down, and the penetration of electric vehicles into the transportation system is proceeding at a very strong pace. On Wednesday, Brent crude oil prices fell below $70 per barrel for the first time since the end of 2021, due to concerns about the economic data of oil-consuming countries. Major disruptions in Libyan oil production and long-term supply constraints from OPEC+ have hardly stopped the fall in oil prices. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. CEO: Signs of weakness in the job market, Fed still likely to cut rates by 50 basis points. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. CEO Solomon said that due to signs of weakness in the job market, the Fed is still likely to choose a larger rate cut than expected. Solomon said, "Based on further weakness in the labor market, (the Fed) has reason to cut rates by 50 basis points." "I think this possibility is around 30%." Solomon said that his most optimistic guess is that the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points, but may cut rates two to three times before the end of the year. It is worth noting that Solomon also predicted in May that the Fed may not cut rates in 2024, although he still believes that a soft landing is the most likely outcome. In recent weeks, the focus of Fed officials has shifted from reining in inflation to the job market. US consumption shows cracks again! Deloitte warns: Holiday season sales growth may hit a six-year low this year. Data released by Deloitte on Thursday showed that holiday season sales in the US are expected to grow at the slowest pace in six years, as continued inflation and exhausted savings make consumers more frugal during the crucial shopping period. The report stated that during the period from November 2024 to January 2025, holiday season retail sales could increase by 2.3% to 3.3%, reaching a total of $1.59 trillion, compared to a 4.3% increase and a total of $1.54 trillion in the previous year. Sales grew by 3.1% in 2018. It is understood that holiday season sales typically account for more than half of the annual revenue of US retailers, making market performance during this period very important. It is worth noting that this year's holiday season is shorter - only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas - prompting retailers to offer higher discounts earlier in the season. UBS Group AG CEO: Market expectations for Fed rate cuts are too aggressive, optimistic about a soft landing for the US economy. Sergio Ermotti, CEO of the Swiss banking giant UBS Group AG, said in an interview that the struggle against inflation is not over yet, and some investors seem to be overly hopeful for a significant rate cut by the Fed this month. Ermotti said, "I think the market seems a bit too eager for the Fed to take such aggressive action." The question of whether the Fed will cut rates at the end of its next policy meeting on September 18 has largely been answered. The only remaining question is: by how much. Ermotti added that the "most important" issue the Fed still needs to consider is inflation, which remains tricky and has not yet been "fully controlled." Blackstone CFO: Cautiously optimistic about a soft landing for the US economy. Michael Chae, Chief Financial Officer of Blackstone Inc., said the company is "cautiously optimistic about a soft landing," indicating that the alternative asset management company is betting that the Fed's measures to control inflation will not lead to a recession in the US. Chae said on Wednesday, "A soft landing is hard to achieve. This situation is quite rare in history, but today it looks quite encouraging." Chae said that Blackstone's own inflation indicator (excluding housing costs and adding other indicators) is 1.7%. He said this would bring the US closer to the "target" for inflation. Wall Street generally expects the Fed to cut rates after a series of rate hikes starting in March 2022. Although these expectations usually depend on CPrivate equity (PE) data and employment statistics, but Blackstone also mines data from its vast investment portfolio, which spans real estate, acquisitions, and financing.What signal does the "bizarre" fluctuation of US bond yields release? Allianz El-Erian: The Fed's policy narrative has "no anchor." Economist Mohamed El-Erian said Wednesday's sharp fluctuations in the two-year US Treasury yield highlighted a lack of firm narratives on the trajectory of the US economy and the Federal Reserve's guidance on monetary policy. On Wednesday, the two-year US Treasury yield fell to its lowest level in two years before the release of the August CPI report, reaching 3.55%. However, after the report showed a higher-than-expected increase in core CPI, the yield fluctuated, soaring to 3.7%, then falling back to 3.59%, and then rising again to 3.68%. "This is part of the current 'anchorless' mode, which urgently needs stable influences, which usually come from dominant economic narratives, rather than the current ping-pong narrative, or forward-looking policy guidance, rather than the Fed's era of over-reliance on data." El-Erian said. Individual stock news DouYu International Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR(DOYU.US) had total revenue of 1.032 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2024, with a continuously optimized revenue structure. In the second quarter of 2024, DouYu International Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR had a mobile average MAU of 44.1 million and 3.4 million paying users. The total revenue of the platform was 1.032 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 84.2 million yuan and a gross profit margin of 8.2%. In this quarter, DouYu International Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR recorded a net loss of 49.2 million yuan, adjusted net loss of 45.5 million yuan, which was significantly narrowed compared to the previous quarter. At the same time, innovative businesses, advertising, and other revenues were 242 million yuan, further optimizing the company's revenue structure. NVIDIA Corporation(NVDA.US) "bull turning around"? Huang Renxun optimistic prediction: AI brings trillion-dollar business opportunities. NVIDIA Corporation CEO Huang Renxun said on Wednesday that the value of a trillion-dollar general data center would modernize to accelerate computing. Huang Renxun pointed out when discussing the data center market: "In any case, this situation will happen." Huang Renxun made the remarks on Wednesday at the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Communication and Technology Conference, addressing questions about the data center market and AI growth. Huang Renxun pointed out that this is why people believe that artificial intelligence will surpass the trillion-dollar data center and IT fields and enter the skill areas, such as digital assembly line workers (Siasun Robot & Automation) and digital customer service (chatting Siasun Robot & Automation). Huang Renxun added that computer "densification" will occur. NVIDIA Corporation hopes to compress large data centers into a small area because data centers scattered across large areas are inefficient. Shares of Roche (RHHBY.US) fell nearly 5% as competitor research results "cooled". The stock of Roche fell on Thursday as one of the company's highly anticipated early-stage weight loss drug candidates showed a high temporary side effect in human initial trials. After Roche announced the details of the trial later on Wednesday, the company's stock fell 4% at the opening of the European markets. A brief summary in July of the successful research boosted the company's stock price. According to a report at a European Diabetes Research Association conference in Madrid, all 25 trial participants experienced mild or moderate side effects, or adverse events, including those who only took an inactive placebo. The side effects of the drug, called CT-996, were mainly gastrointestinal (GI), similar to similar drugs. CT-996 was part of Roche's $2.7 billion acquisition of Carmot last December. Former senior executives testify for antitrust investigation, Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) advertising "cash cow" dangerous? Former senior executives of Alphabet Inc. Class C testified in the antitrust trial of the US Department of Justice that eight years ago, after developing a way to increase online advertising revenue by bypassing Alphabet Inc. Class C tools, Alphabet Inc. Class C considered reducing its advertising transaction fees. Alphabet Inc. Class C charges a 20% fee, the highest in the industry. Websites selling advertising space developed a new technology called Header Bidding to combat Alphabet Inc. Class C's high fee structure and generate more revenue from transactions. Alphabet Inc. Class C never reduced its fees but instead developed a modified version of the technology in 2019. In a trial that began this week at a federal court in Alexandria, Virginia, antitrust enforcers accused Alphabet Inc. Class C of illegal monopoly in the technology used to buy and sell online advertising space. Alphabet Inc. Class C controls a range of complex technological products that websites use to sell advertising space. Roku (ROKU.US) closed up nearly 7%! Cleveland Research: Q3 earnings may exceed expectations. Cleveland Research said on Wednesday that Roku's third-quarter performance may exceed market expectations thanks to linear growth, TTD positive news, CPM (cost per thousand impressions) investment, and execution. Cleveland Research said: "Roku's momentum in the third quarter looks strong.This is thanks to Roku TV's linear growth in sales, the push for programmatic efforts, and the company's robust execution on new products/plans." Cleveland said that the prospects of this streaming device company "look more constructive", judged by its new products, new advertising revenue, lower CPM, and better agency relationships. Cleveland Research expects that most of the growth will be achieved through DSP. Roku closed up 6.84% on Wednesday, at $70.15.Half-year surge of 1300%! SpaceX's small competitor AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) is currently conducting satellite launches. The small telecommunication company AST SpaceMobile, seeking to compete with SpaceX, has skyrocketed from $2 to $28 in just six months, becoming one of the hottest stocks globally this year. Now, it faces a crucial test to prove the legitimacy of its dramatic surge. On Thursday morning, AST will ride on a SpaceX rocket to launch its first batch of five commercial satellites into near-earth orbit from Cape Canaveral, Florida. Since hitting a historical low in April, AST's stock price has risen by about 130%, making it the best-performing stock in the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks over the past six months. By August 19th, AST's stock price had reached a high of $38.60, an increase of over 1800% from its low in April. Since then, the stock has pared back some of its gains, but still maintains a significant increase, rising 6.9% on Wednesday. Upcoming important economic data and events: 20:30 Beijing time: Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 7th (in thousands), US August PPI year-on-year (%). 20:15 Beijing time: European Central Bank announces interest rate decision. 20:45 Beijing time: European Central Bank President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference. Next day, at 03:40 Beijing time: Democratic presidential candidate Harris delivers a campaign speech in Charlotte, North Carolina. Earnings forecast: Friday morning: Adobe (ADBE.US)