The import and export situation of integrated circuits will determine the performance of companies in the electronic industry chain.

Capital released a research report stating that integrated circuits are the core components of downstream smart terminals such as mobile phones and computers, and the sales of integrated circuits in the upstream are a leading indicator of the production volume of downstream smart terminals. In order to accurately predict the performance of electronic industry chain companies this year, it is also necessary to observe the import and export situation of integrated circuits in the next few months. Capital indicates that it is recommended to focus on two aspects: first, focus on companies with good cash flow and low valuation. Second, focus on investment opportunities related to Huawei's threefold phone and Apple's iPhone 16. Key points from Capital: - The export growth rate of integrated circuits in August slowed down In August 2024, China's export volume of integrated circuits was 13.3 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2%, maintaining high growth, but the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous three months. From January to August 2024, China's export growth rates for integrated circuits were: 40.7%, 4.2%, 11.5%, 17.8%, 28.5%, 23.4%, 27.7%, 18.2%. - The export quantity of integrated circuits in August grew by 10.5% year-on-year In August 2024, China's export quantity of integrated circuits was 26.63 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.5%, maintaining high growth. - The average selling price of integrated circuits for export slightly decreased in August In August 2024, China's export ASP for integrated circuits was $0.501, slightly lower than the $0.507 in July. The export ASP for integrated circuits in June, July, and August were $0.546, $0.507, and $0.501 respectively. - The import growth rate of integrated circuits in August was 11.1% In August 2024, China's import value of integrated circuits was 33.08 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.1%. From January to August 2024, China's import growth rates for integrated circuits were: 27.8%, 1.3%, 2.0%, 15.8%, 17.3%, -0.1%, 14.9%, 11.1%. - The import quantity of integrated circuits in August grew by 14.5% year-on-year In August 2024, China's import quantity of integrated circuits was 49.81 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.5%. From January to August 2024, China's import quantity growth rates for integrated circuits were: 32.1%, 0.9%, 5.9%, 20.4%, 15.4%, 9.4%, 16.3%, 14.5%. - The average import price of integrated circuits slightly decreased in August In August 2024, China's import ASP for integrated circuits was $0.664, slightly lower than the $0.67 in July. The import ASP for integrated circuits in June, July, and August were $0.686, $0.67, and $0.664 respectively. Risk Warning: 1. Recovery of downstream demand falls short of expectations. 2. The growth rate of integrated circuit imports and exports continues to slow down, or even decline.