Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures fell together, Trump and Harris clashed for the first time.

1. On Tuesday, September 10th, before the US stock market opened, the futures of the three major US stock indexes all fell. As of the time of writing, Dow Jones futures fell by 0.07%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.02%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.15%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index fell by 0.33%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.59%, the French CAC 40 index rose by 0.16%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.09%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 0.86% to $68.12 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.75% to $71.28 per barrel. Market News US presidential candidates Harris and Trump will debate on Wednesday morning at 9 am Beijing time. The debate on Wednesday (September 11th) at 9 am Beijing time is likely to be one of the most important nights in Vice President Harris's political career. Former President Trump is hoping to turn a new page after a difficult summer. Since becoming the Democratic Party's nominee for president instead of Biden, Harris has narrowed the polling gap with Trump. Wednesday may be one of Trump's chances to try to reverse this trend before Americans start voting early. Harris's aides and supporters hope she can provoke the former president's incoherent outbursts. The Trump campaign hopes to shift the conversation back to what they consider winnable areas: the economy, immigration, and the global chaotic state. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. provides a "reassurance pill": the risk of a US economic recession is low, and the US stock market is unlikely to enter a bear market. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. strategists state that the US stock market is unlikely to plummet by 20% or more because the risk of an economic recession remains low and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates. The team led by Christian Mueller Glissmann stated that although the US stock market may fall before the end of the year due to valuation increases, mixed economic growth prospects, and policy uncertainty, the likelihood of the stock market entering a bear market is low because the economy is also partially supported by a "healthy private sector." In addition, an analysis of historical data by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. strategy team shows that since the 1990s, due to the extension of the business cycle, the reduction of macroeconomic volatility, and the "buffering" by central banks, instances where the S&P 500 index has fallen by more than 20% have become less frequent. How can US large technology stocks return to growth? Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. points the way: a "magical" moment is needed. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. analyst Kash Rangan states that a strong boost from a "magical moment" is needed for US large technology stocks to rise again. The bank points out that the formula for this magical moment is the Federal Reserve steadily cutting interest rates, combined with a series of innovations that drive profit growth by more than 20%. "We have to take the growth rate of this industry back from 11% to 20%-30%, and to do that, we have to have new innovations," Rangan said at a Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. communication and technology conference on Monday. Rangan is optimistic about Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) and Salesforce, Inc. (CRM.US), and he believes that the technology industry must make progress in areas such as customer sales addition and monetization in the field of artificial intelligence. "When you combine this kind of innovation with lower interest rates, miracles happen," Rangan said. SocGen: US non-farm payrolls below expectations, but market has reason to reduce bets on a 50 basis point rate cut. French Industrial Bank states that the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month increased after the release of the US August non-farm payroll report, but then receded, indicating that traders believe the Fed is unlikely to significantly cut rates when starting to cut rates. SocGen states that job growth was below expectations but not catastrophic, with a slight increase in wage growth. There is no doubt that the US economy is slowing down, but there is also no reason to call it a "hard landing." According to CME FedWatch tool data on Monday, the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September was 27%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 73%. In comparison, after the mixed August job report last week, the probability increased from 40% on Thursday to around 50% on Friday. US consumer loans unexpectedly increased by $25.5 billion, the largest increase since the end of 2022. US consumer borrowing in July saw the largest increase since November 2022, reflecting a significant increase in non-revolving debt and credit card balances. Data released by the Federal Reserve on Monday showed that outstanding credit increased by $25.5 billion, exceeding all economist forecasts. Non-revolving debt, such as auto purchase loans and tuition loans, surged by $14.8 billion over a year and a half. These data have not been adjusted for inflation. The increase in borrowing helped drive the largest increase in retail sales since early 2023, including an increase in vehicle purchases. However, if consumers become more cautious, holding larger credit card balances and high-interest rate loans could pose a risk to spending. US large banks face halving of capital requirements, Wall Street's big banks "rise first." According to sources, after regulatory agencies agreed to a comprehensive revision of proposed regulations, the capital requirements for US large banks will be reduced to 9%, a significant decrease compared to the original plan. The Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency initially planned to require Bank of America Corp (BAC.US) to...Capital at eight globally important US banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US), has increased by 19% to cushion against unexpected losses and financial shocks. Lowering capital requirements significantly is more likely to appease banks, who launched one of the most intense lobbying campaigns after the proposal was introduced last year. Revisions to the draft may also help Federal Reserve Chairman Powell achieve his goal of obtaining broad support from the Federal Open Market Committee. Powell has made it clear to banks that he also wants to avoid a protracted legal battle.Individual stock news Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) Q1 profit exceeded expectations, with cloud infrastructure revenue increasing by 45% year-on-year. Oracle Corporation's Q1 revenue increased by 7% year-on-year to $13.3 billion, in line with analysts' average expectations. Under Non-GAAP accounting standards, operating profit increased by 14% year-on-year to $5.7 billion, better than analysts' average expectations of $5.59 billion; earnings per share were $1.39, better than analysts' average expectation of $1.33. Cloud revenue (IaaS+SaaS) in Q1 increased by 21% year-on-year to $5.6 billion, in line with analysts' expectations; of which, cloud infrastructure revenue increased by 45% year-on-year to $2.2 billion, better than analysts' average expectation of $2.18 billion. Remaining performance obligations (RPO) increased by 53% year-on-year to $99 billion, setting a new company record. Looking ahead, Oracle Corporation expects Non-GAAP earnings per share for the second quarter to be $1.45-1.49, with revenue expected to increase by 8%-10%, including cloud revenue expected to increase by 24%-25%. The smartphone market is recovering, and there is strong demand for AI chips. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) saw a 33% increase in revenue in August. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR saw a 33% increase in revenue last month, which is undoubtedly a positive signal for investors betting on the recovery of the smartphone market and the continued strong growth in demand for NVIDIA Corporation's (NVDA.US) AI chips. Data shows that sales in August reached NT$250.9 billion (US$7.8 billion), but the growth rate of 45% from the previous month has slowed down. Analysts expect total revenue for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR to increase by approximately 37% in the third quarter, continuing the strong recovery trend since the low demand period after the COVID-19 pandemic. Although this is only for a month, this result may alleviate concerns about whether the market is overestimating the sustainability of spending on NVIDIA Corporation's AI GPU-led artificial intelligence infrastructure. On September 3, NVIDIA Corporation lost about $279 billion in market value, setting a record for the largest single-day decline in stock price. Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) launches the all-new iPhone 16 series: designed around AI, equipped with the new A18 processor. On Monday, September 9th, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) held its annual most important product launch event, introducing the all-new iPhone 16 series and a range of other new products. The theme of this event was "highlights." The most anticipated new product this year is the iPhone 16 series smartphones. Apple Inc. also made significant updates to the Apple Watch and AirPods, and introduced the new Apple Intelligence, an upgrade based on Siri. This event is of great significance to Apple Inc. The company is gradually emerging from its longest sales slump in recent years, hoping to inject new vitality into its core business through new products, which account for about 60% of Apple Inc.'s annual revenue. At the same time, Apple Inc. is also increasing its efforts to encourage consumer spending on its service products, which have become an increasingly important source of revenue for the company. The European Court of Justice rejects the lawsuit filed by Alphabet Inc. Class C's parent company Alphabet (GOOGL.US). Alphabet Inc. Class C was fined a record 2.4 billion by the European Union for abusing its shopping services. Alphabet Inc. Class C's parent company Alphabet filed an appeal but was rejected by the European Court of Justice. The European Court of Justice found that Alphabet Inc. Class C illegally used its dominant position in search engines to provide higher rankings for its product listings. Involving 13 billion! Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) loses huge tax avoidance case. Apple Inc. lost in a legal case involving 13 billion (US$14.4 billion) in Irish tax laws, further pushing the European Union's crackdown on special tax breaks provided to major companies by various countries. The European Union court in Luxembourg supported a landmark ruling in 2016, stating that Ireland violated state aid laws by giving Apple Inc. unfair advantages. On Tuesday, the court ruled that Apple Inc.'s victory in the lower court should be overturned because the judges wrongly determined that the Commission's regulatory agency had made errors in assessment. This ruling is a boost for EU competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager. In 2016, Vestager took aim at Apple Inc.'s tax arrangements, sparking anger on the other side of the Atlantic. She ordered Ireland to reclaim 13 billion, which has been held in escrow pending a final ruling. Continuous bad news! Mobileye (MBLY.US) decides to terminate internal development of LiDAR. Mobileye Global has decided to terminate the internal development of next-generation Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) LiDAR for autonomous driving and highly automated driving systems. The LiDAR research and development department will be closed by the end of 2024, affecting approximately 100.Top employee. In 2024, the operating expenses of the laser radar research and development department are estimated to be approximately 60 million US dollars. The decision to terminate internal laser radar development is based on several factors, including the company's substantial progress in computer vision perception based on EyeQ6, improved performance of its internally developed imaging radar, and the continuing decrease in costs of third-party Time of Flight (ToF) laser radars. Although this initiative is not expected to have a significant impact on Mobileye's performance in 2024, it can avoid future expenses on laser radar development.Preview of Important Economic Data and Events At 20:55 Beijing time: US Redbook Retail Sales YoY (%) for the week ending September 2nd. Next day at midnight Beijing time: EIA releases Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. Next day at 04:30 Beijing time: US API Crude Oil Inventories Change (thousand barrels) for the week ending September 6th. At 22:00 Beijing time: Fed Governor Barr speaks on Basel III Agreement. Next day at midnight Beijing time: Fed Governor Bowman speaks on Bank Stress Tests. Next day at 09:00 Beijing time: US presidential candidates Harris and Trump participate in a debate on ABC News. Earnings Preview Wednesday morning: GameStop Corp. Class A (GME.US)