Overnight US stocks | Three major indices rise, Palantir (PLTR.US) closes up over 14%

On Monday, the three major indexes rose, and the market this week is focusing on the August CPI and PPI inflation data to determine the extent to which the Fed may cut interest rates in September. [US Stocks] As of the time of writing, the Dow rose by 484.18 points, or 1.20%, to 40829.59 points; the Nasdaq rose by 193.77 points, or 1.16%, to 16884.60 points; the S&P 500 rose by 62.63 points, or 1.16%, to 5471.05 points. Palantir (PLTR.US) closed up more than 14%, marking its largest single-day gain since February. Previously, the company was included in the S&P 500 index. Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) closed down 1.35%, but rose more than 8.8% after hours. [European Stocks] The UK's FTSE 100 index rose by 54.78 points, or 0.67%, to 8236.25 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 30.79 points, or 0.65%, to 4768.85 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index rose by 54.25 points, or 0.49%, to 11227.25 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index rose by 168.61 points, or 0.51%, to 33460.00 points; the German DAX30 index rose by 109.76 points, or 0.60%, to 18390.25 points; the French CAC40 index rose by 29.97 points, or 0.41%, to 7382.27 points. [Asia-Pacific Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.48%, the Jakarta Composite Index fell by 0.25%, and the Vietnam VN30 index fell by 0.63%. [Gold] COMEX gold futures rose by 0.43% to $2535.50 per ounce; COMEX silver futures rose by 1.59% to $28.690 per ounce. Kinesis Money analyst De Casa pointed out that if inflation data is significantly lower than expected, expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut might increase sharply, potentially pushing gold prices to new highs. However, even if the market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut, gold prices are unlikely to drop significantly because the Fed is likely to cut rates. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin rose by more than 4.5% to $57403.55, and Ethereum rose by 3% to $2366.98. [Crude Oil] WTI October crude oil futures closed up by $1.04, up more than 1.53%, at $68.71 per barrel; Brent November crude oil futures closed up by $0.78, up about 1.10%, at $71.84 per barrel. [Metals] London metals rose, with nickel up by 0.83%, zinc up by 0.64%, aluminum up by 0.85%, and copper up by 1.2%. [Macro News] Inflation pressures ease: New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations remain stable. A report released by the New York Fed on Monday showed that public expectations for inflation pressure in the US remained stable from last month, as current price pressure continued to decline. The latest consumer expectations survey by the Fed found that respondents in August expected inflation rates of 3% and 2.8% one year and five years from now, respectively, which was largely in line with July. Participants predicted that the inflation rate three years from now would increase from 2.3% in July to 2.5%. The report also found that price expectations for housing in August increased from 3% to 3.1% from the previous month. While overall inflation expectations in August were stable, the public expects prices for gasoline, rent, and healthcare to rise, while the increase in food and university prices may slow down. The report stated that respondents had mixed feelings about the labor market outlook, expecting an increase in income and expenses. It is reported that the capital surcharge for large US banks will be halved. According to sources, following full-scale modifications of proposed rules by US regulatory agencies, including Bank of America Corp and JPMorgan Chase, among eight major US banks, the capital surcharge requirements will be halved from 19% to 9%. The substantial reduction in capital surcharge requirements is expected to appease banks, as they engaged in one of the most intense lobbying efforts after the proposal was introduced last year. The revised draft may also help Federal Reserve Chairman Powell achieve his goal of obtaining broad support from the Federal Reserve Board. Powell has made it clear to banks that he also wants to avoid a lengthy legal battle. Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Federal Reserve, Bar, plans to briefly outline these changes in a speech on Tuesday. US consumer credit increased by $25.5 billion, the largest increase since the end of 2022. Data released by the Federal Reserve on Monday showed that total US consumer credit increased by $25.5 billion in July, marking the largest increase since November 2022, with non-revolving credit and credit card balances surging. Non-revolving credit, which includes loans for purchasing cars and tuition, increased by $14.8 billion. The increase in borrowing helps explain the record increase in retail sales in July since early 2023, including the increase in car purchases. However, if consumers become more cautious, holding more credit card balances and high-interest loans could pose a risk to spending. Although the Fed is expected to take the first step towards lowering the benchmark interest rate next week, it will take time for the Fed's actions to lower consumer financing costs. Morgan Stanley is cautious on some emerging market bonds, as a Fed rate cut is unlikely to stimulate a flood of funds. Morgan Stanley's view on some emerging market sovereign bonds has shifted to caution, with the bank believing that a Fed rate cut is unlikely to stimulate a large influx of funds into bond funds. Strategists such as Simon Waever suggest that investors take a short-term bearish view on this asset class, increase their cash levels in their portfolios, focus on investment-grade bonds rather than higher-risk bonds, or sell credit default swap indices on emerging markets. According to a report published on Monday, the bank has removed bonds from Nigeria, Argentina, and Morocco from a basket of select bonds, and included "cheaper" Mexican and Romanian bonds. The bank predicts that some emerging market bonds may be impacted by the shift in expectations for an economic soft landing in the US. "A further decline in US Treasury yields could be unfavorable for risk appetite," they said.After the first interest rate cut, it took 12 months for funds to shift from money market funds to risk assets.The Biden administration purchased 3.4 million barrels of oil to supplement the SPR. The U.S. Energy Corp. announced on Monday that the Biden administration has purchased over 3.4 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The contract signed on Sunday runs from January 2025 to March 2025, with over 1.1 million barrels filled into the strategic oil reserve in Texas, Freeport Bryan Mound, each month. So far, the U.S. Energy Corp. has purchased over 50 million barrels of oil for the SPR at an average price of $76 per barrel. The U.S. Energy Corp. stated that the U.S. government would continue to evaluate plans to supplement the SPR, ensuring a good deal for taxpayers while considering foreign exchange returns and market developments. Individual Stock News Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) stock price surged after-hours, driven by cloud business boosting profits beyond expectations. Oracle Corporation reported better-than-expected quarterly profits, indicating that ongoing demand for artificial intelligence is helping to boost profits for its cloud computing business. Oracle Corporation announced on Monday that its earnings per share, excluding certain items, were $1.39. Revenue for the quarter ending on August 31 increased by 7% to $13 billion. Analysts had an average earnings per share expectation of $1.33 and an average revenue expectation of $13.3 billion. CEO Safra Catz said in a statement, "As cloud services become Oracle Corporation's largest business, our revenue and earnings per share are accelerating." The Austin-based company, known for its database software, is focused on expanding its cloud infrastructure business to compete with Amazon.com, Inc., Microsoft Corporation, and Alphabet Inc. subsidiary Alphabet Inc. Class C. Oracle Corporation's cloud business is renowned for its success in generative artificial intelligence workloads. The company's customers include Reka and Musk's xAI. Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) launches iPhone 16 series, base model starting at $799. Apple Inc. announced the iPhone 16 series, featuring the A18 series chip, Apple Intelligence, and a 16-core neural engine. The base model iPhone 16 starts at $799, while the Plus, Pro, and Pro Max versions start at $899, $999, and $1199 respectively. The iPhone 16 will be available from September 20th and pre-orders will start this Friday. The A18 chip in the base and Plus models of the iPhone 16 is 30% faster than the A16 Bionic used in the iPhone 15 and 60% faster than the A14 Bionic used in the iPhone 12. The iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max will feature the more powerful A18 Pro chip. Apple Inc. (AAPL.O) also announced that Apple Intelligence will first be launched in the U.S. in October, followed by English-speaking countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, U.K.) in December, and will be rolled out to China, France, Japan, and Spain next year. Meta (META.US) announced that it will open up third-party app integration with its messaging apps in Europe. In response to the EU's Digital Markets Act, Meta announced that it will open up third-party apps to communicate with its WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger messaging apps in Europe. It is expected that cross-app messaging interoperability will be formally introduced next year, with advanced features such as calling and video sharing to be achieved by 2027. Meta Platforms stated that since the EU's Digital Markets Act came into effect, they have been engaged in a six-month special development to allow other third-party apps to access communication data from their WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger apps while ensuring security, and to enable advanced features such as emojis, read receipts, and typing indicators.