Official statement! "Confident in crossing this round of cycle" Has the stock price of Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) bottomed out?

On June 30, according to the official WeChat account of "Kweichow Moutai", Wang Li, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and General Manager of Moutai Group, led a team to conduct market research in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Beijing, and organized a market work meeting for the provinces of Su, Hu, An, and the regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin in Nanjing and Beijing on June 28 and 30. The meeting pointed out that the basic attributes of Moutai liquor have not changed, and the basic demand has not changed either. Over the past few decades, the liquor industry has experienced several rounds of adjustments, and each time Moutai has steadily crossed the cycle with strong determination and strength, achieving better development. Compared to the past, although the current situation is more complex, the current Moutai has stronger core competitiveness, a better market channel ecology, and more risk prevention resilience, and has the confidence, strength, and ability to cross this cycle. Since the beginning of June, the continuous fall in the price of Feitian Moutai has attracted market attention. On June 24th, "Today's Liquor Price" showed that the price of a single bottle of Feitian Moutai in 2024 had dropped below 2100 yuan, reaching a low price of 2080 yuan. Although there is a significant price difference compared to the market guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle, bearish sentiment has spread throughout the market. In fact, there have been adjustment periods for Feitian Moutai in the past. Reviewing the wholesale prices in recent years, the market has experienced at least two rounds of adjustment periods, but after each round of adjustment, the price of Feitian Moutai has stabilized and rebounded. With its unique manufacturing process and strong brand power, Feitian Moutai has a solid moat, and short-term price fluctuations do not change its long-term value proposition. After the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai fell below 2100 yuan per bottle, Kweichow Moutai actively implemented a "price stabilization" policy. This includes temporarily suspending the digital collection rights of 375ml Moutai liquor, tightening the supply of direct purchase in certain provinces at 1499 yuan, among other measures. In addition, several distributors have indicated that the 12-bottle pack of Feitian Moutai will be discontinued, the open box policy will be canceled, and the distribution of Moutai 15-year and premium Moutai will be suspended. After Kweichow Moutai implemented the "price stabilization combo", the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai hit bottom and rebounded. As of June 30, the price of a single bottle of 24-year Feitian Moutai had risen to 2290 yuan, and the price of a box of 24-year Feitian Moutai had risen to 2550 yuan. This signifies a recovery in confidence in Moutai within the industry, greatly boosting confidence in the liquor industry. In addition, as the price of Moutai plummeted, the secondary market also experienced a correction. Starting from May 8, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai has been declining, and on June 24, the price dropped to a low of 1414.01 yuan, leading to a market capitalization decrease of over 360 billion yuan. However, after hitting bottom on June 24, market sentiment has shown signs of improvement with the implementation of price stabilization measures, and the stock price of Kweichow Moutai has stabilized and rebounded. Zhongtai pointed out that during the price decline, consumers and channels may exhibit a stronger wait-and-see attitude in the hope of finding more cost-effective goods, which may result in a delay in some demand. According to Microliquor, the buying mentality has heated up in Beijing, Guangdong, and other regions this week, and the actual sales of Moutai at the end terminals are accelerating, with a much faster turnover compared to May. The bank predicts that as the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season approaches, the year-on-year performance of Moutai demand in July-August is expected to be better than that of the second quarter, driving a short-term rebound in Moutai wholesale prices.