Shenwan Hongyuan: The adjustment will lead to a "Red October", and the spring of 2026 may be a phase of A-share market peak.

Shenwan Hongyuan stated that after the adjustment of A-shares, "Red October" is a high probability. October is also a key policy layout window, and after the adjustment, it is more conducive to the stable and rising expectations of the capital market. The cyclical catalysis still needs to wait, with the focus on demand seeing the deduction from the new round of "policy bottom" to "economic bottom" in 2026 and the supply side clearing in 2026. However, the cyclical catalysis in Q4 2025 is relatively lackluster. The catalysis of the technology industry is still trending, with the overseas AI industry trend on the rise and has not yet reached its limit, while the domestic AI industry trend is also constantly improving. Currently in a period of increasing highlights in the technology industry, since the adjustment period in September, small-scale structural highlights have continued to emerge. In October, industry highlights and long-term policy layouts resonate, and structural heat may rise again. In addition, the spring of 2026 may be a phase of high point, most likely not the high point of the whole year in 2026, and certainly not the high point of this round of comprehensive bull market. The bull market still has depth, and with the passage of time, the conditions for the interpretation of a comprehensive bull market will become more and more sufficient.