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According to a research report from CITIC Securities, the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) updated its cobalt export policy on September 20th, extending the ban on cobalt exports until October 15th, 2025. From 2026 to 2027, cobalt export quotas will only be 44% of annual production. The cobalt export quota system demonstrates the DRC government's determination to control global cobalt prices. It is expected that the government will stabilize cobalt prices in the long term by flexibly adjusting cobalt supply, which is beneficial for the healthy development of the global cobalt industry. CITIC Securities predicts that the DRC export quota policy will result in a significantly lower global cobalt supply from 2025 to 2027. The shortage of supply is estimated to be 122,000/88,000/97,000 tons respectively, and cobalt prices are expected to rise strongly. Companies that have operations in Indonesia for cobalt smelting, as well as those that own mines in the DRC, are expected to benefit greatly from the rising cobalt prices.
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