Dongwu Securities: Savings entering the stock market is still in its early stages.

date
20/09/2025
Dong Wu Securities Research Report states that in terms of the contribution of the conversion from general deposits to non-bank deposits, the movement of household and corporate deposits and interbank business jointly drive the increase in non-bank deposits. In terms of the drive for deposit movement, household regular deposits or the main force of "funds entering the market" from July to August 2025, since 2025, the movement of deposits is more reflected in the "currentization" of regular deposits, and from 2025 to 2026, regular deposits are still in a peak period of currentization. The specific flow of deposit funds also depends on changes in risk preferences. If the profit effect of the stock market continues to increase, the advantage of stock-type funds and hybrid funds over wealth management products may continue to increase, and the currentization of regular deposits may promote the allocation of funds to equity assets, further improving the liquidity of the stock market. From 2025 to 2026, there will be a peak of high-interest regular deposits due, and the currentization of regular deposits may continue to dominate the conversion of general deposits into non-bank deposits. In terms of the absolute scale of new regular deposits from non-financial enterprises and households, the period from 2022 to 2023 is the peak of deposit regularization. With the implementation of the "reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut" again in the second quarter of 2025 and the expected return rate of risk assets rising, the excess regular deposits of households have begun to be released since the end of June, totaling a reduction of 480.1 billion yuan from July to August 2025. However, the peak of large-scale currentization of regular deposits or the movement of deposits has not yet arrived.