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Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: The unemployment rate remains low but has slightly increased; inflation has recently risen slightly above target; job growth has slowed with an increased risk of downside; economic growth has also moderated. The unemployment rate has remained relatively stable compared to last year. The slowdown in GDP growth is mainly due to a deceleration in consumer spending. The significant slowdown in job growth reflects a decrease in immigration and labor force participation. Job growth seems to be below the breakeven level. The labor market is slightly weaker and less active than before. Activity in the housing sector remains sluggish. While goods inflation has accelerated, service inflation has fallen and is still ongoing. Most inflation expectations indicators after next year are in line with the 2% target. Long-term inflation expectations remain stable. The impact of policy changes on the economy is still uncertain and will evolve gradually. The baseline scenario is that the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary. The risks of persistent inflation need to be managed. The balance of risks has shifted, with employment facing downside risks and inflation risks tending upwards.
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