Market Overview: Global stock markets rose slightly on the eve of the release of the CPI report.

The eagerly awaited US inflation data on Thursday is seen as a key factor influencing expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path this year. Ahead of the release of this data, traders have refrained from making large bets, leading to a slight increase in global stock markets. S&P 500 index futures rose 0.1% after hitting consecutive all-time highs. European stock markets rose 0.2%, led by the construction and telecom sectors. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia Pacific Index remained basically unchanged after rising for five consecutive days. US Treasury bonds remained stable, with the 10-year bond yield at 4.05%. The US dollar strengthened. Traders are now waiting for the inflation data to be released. In recent weeks, as more data shows pressure on the US labor market, there has been a significant increase in expectations that the Federal Reserve will restart its monetary easing policy this month. The surprise decrease in the Producer Price Index released on Wednesday further supported the view that "tariffs have not exerted excessive pressure on prices." The median expectation from a Bloomberg survey suggests that the core Consumer Price index, excluding food and energy prices, may rise for a second consecutive month by 0.3%. The currency market is currently betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates up to three times by December, with each cut being 25 basis points; some bets suggest that the Fed may cut rates by a significant 50 basis points at its meeting next week. If the inflation data is lower than expected, it may fuel market expectations for a significant rate cut by the Fed for the first time; if the data shows strength, it will provide support for a more gradual rate cut. Natalia Lipichina, Head of Equity Strategy for J.P. Morgan Private Bank in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, commented, "Even if the CPI sees a slight increase, there is a view that this may be a short-term phenomenon driven by tariffs. As long as the increase is not large, I don't think the market will have a significant negative reaction." Market expectations are that European Central Bank policymakers will announce maintaining interest rates unchanged later on Thursday, with analysts believing there will be no further rate cuts in this cycle. Economists expect that the new quarterly economic forecasts will ease concerns about "inflation persistently below 2%." In the commodity market, Brent crude oil prices fell to around $67.30 a barrel as the market predicts record surplus crude oil inventories next year. While the International Energy Agency slightly raised global oil demand expectations until 2026, the larger increase in expectations was for oil supply. Meanwhile, Mexico is considering imposing a maximum 50% tariff on cars, auto parts, steel, and textiles from China and other countries that have not signed trade agreements with it. US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have promised to engage in dialogue and restart trade negotiations, signaling a possible easing of tensions after weeks of intense disputes over tariffs and Russian oil purchases.