Zhongjin Macro: With the September base declining, exports may show some improvement year-on-year.

CICC Macro pointed out that in August 2025, exports in US dollar terms increased by +4.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by +1.3% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations. The base has risen slightly, and overall external demand remains stable. This can also be confirmed from the export structure by region. CICC believes that the main contributing factor to the increase in the decline in exports to the United States in August may be the fading of the export preloading effect. As for imports, the marginal contribution of prices has fallen, and domestic demand still awaits policy support. CICC predicts that with the decrease in the base in September, exports may improve year-on-year.