CICC Macro: It is expected that with the decrease in the base in September, exports may improve year-on-year.

Zhongjin Macro pointed out that in August 2025, the year-on-year growth of exports in US dollar terms was +4.4%, and the year-on-year growth of imports was +1.3%, both lower than market expectations. The base has been raised slightly, and overall external demand remains stable. This can also be confirmed from the export structure by region. Zhongjin believes that the main contributing factor to the increased decline in exports to the United States in August may be the fading of the pre-export effect. In terms of imports, the marginal contribution of prices has fallen, and domestic demand still awaits policy support. Zhongjin expects that as the base decreases in September, the year-on-year growth of exports may improve.