CMB Macro: September may be a window for observing the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. If the RMB exchange rate returns to the era of 6, Chinese assets may undergo a comprehensive revaluation.

China Merchants' macro report stated that September may be a window for observing the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. Last September, the rate cut by the Federal Reserve led to a significant increase in RMB outflows. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September this year as scheduled, as long as the central bank takes decisive action, the RMB exchange rate will appreciate. On July 14, People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Zou Lan stated that market expectations for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts are rising, the misalignment of the monetary policy cycles between China and the United States will be improved, and the interest rate spread between China and the United States is narrowing. This statement also seems to imply the prospect of rising Chinese government bond yields and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. If anti-internal competition policies continue to be implemented effectively, the competitive landscape of Chinese enterprises will significantly improve; if the RMB returns to the era of below 6, coupled with actual effective exchange rate appreciation, it will enhance the attractiveness of Chinese equity assets, attract foreign capital, and strengthen inflation and domestic demand strategies. Chinese assets will then undergo a comprehensive reassessment, with leading and high-quality assets, especially consumer goods and other domestic demand assets, possibly entering a new allocation window.