: US Treasury yields rise across the board, Powell's remarks prompt traders to increase bets on a Fed rate cut in September.

date
23/08/2025
The U.S. Treasury bond rose, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautiously opening the door to a rate cut in September, pointing out that although inflation concerns still exist, risks in the labor market are increasing. Yields on all maturities of government bonds fell, with the yield on the two-year bond falling by 7 basis points at one point, while the benchmark 10-year bond yield fell to 4.27%. "Stability in the unemployment rate and other labor market indicators allows us to proceed cautiously as we consider changes in our policy stance," Powell said in a speech prepared for the annual Jackson Hole meeting in Wyoming on Friday. Traders immediately increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Interest rate swaps indicate a likelihood of a rate cut exceeding 85%, compared to around 65% before Powell began his speech. "Powell's comments sounded somewhat dovish, suggesting a shift in risk from sticky U.S. inflation to weakness in the labor market," Valentin Marinov, head of G-10 FX research and strategy at Credit Agricole CIB, said. "His remarks seem to further pave the way for a rate cut in September."