Pin Hao: The rise in the US stock market does not reflect the economic situation.

It is important to differentiate between the performance of the U.S. stock market and the overall economy. Pinhao stated in a report to clients that these two are not the same. The company added that the S&P 500 index has risen by nearly 10% so far this year, a significant increase, but with a bumpy process, as there was about a 20% retreat in April. However, this performance masks some facts, such as the actual consumer spending annualized growth rate of 1% in the first half of 2025, while the actual GDP growth rate has been slowing down. Pinhao further stated that based on these indicators, a survey by Bloomberg of economists shows an average probability of 35% for the U.S. economy to experience a recession in the next year, which is not surprising.