Open source securities: Industry tariffs may become the new core of Trump's tariff policy after the equal tariffs 2.0.
Open Source Securities research report stated that Trump has announced tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on industries such as steel, aluminum, and copper, which fully reflects his determination to promote the reshoring of manufacturing by imposing industry tariffs. According to our calculation, the amount of steel, aluminum, and copper being levied is approximately 70.7 billion US dollars, but the amount of steel and aluminum derivatives is approximately 71.8 billion US dollars, further expanding the scope. The total import value of tariffs on industries such as automobiles, parts, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors is expected to exceed 660 billion US dollars by 2024. The month-on-month growth rate of US manufacturing employment in April-July 2025 may prompt Trump to continue strengthening the imposition of industry tariffs to force manufacturing back to the US. The main methods might be to continue raising the tax rates of current tariffs and to accelerate investigations and expand the scope, such as industry tariff investigations on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, aircraft, and rare minerals, which could be expedited and the scope may also expand. Looking ahead, tariff negotiations and conflicts during Trump's subsequent term may continue to exist, causing sustained market disruptions that warrant our attention.
Latest