JPMorgan: Consumer loan subsidy policy is expected to have limited financial impact on domestic banks, Ping An Bank may benefit the most

JPMorgan Chase released a research report stating that the government's announcement to provide interest subsidies for personal consumer loans and capital expenditure and operating fund loans for eight types of business entities is believed to stimulate demand for such loans, but the expected impact on bank finances is limited. According to the bank's calculations, a 10 percentage point increase in consumer and qualified service industry loans will only bring about a 0.4% positive impact on total annual income in 2025. JPMorgan also pointed out that the policy signal is still positive, which is conducive to improving market sentiment. Among the rated bank stocks, JPMorgan expects that Ping An Bank will benefit the most if it can control the related loan credit risks, and also believes that China Merchants Bank, Postal Savings Bank of China, and Bank of China will benefit, with China Merchants Bank being recommended for its strong risk management capabilities.