China-Thai Securities: Under the guidance of the "anti-inner squeeze" policy, "excessive production inspection" may continue to promote industry self-regulation.

date
16/08/2025
The report from Zhongtai Securities stated that "overproduction inspections" may continue to drive industry "self-discipline" under the "276 workdays" system, strengthening expectations of a contraction in coal supply. Since the National Energy Administration launched "overproduction inspections" in July, various regions have started implementing them, leading to some coal mines being temporarily shut down for rectification or adopting the "276 workdays" system voluntarily. Expectations for a contraction in supply have increased; looking back at 2016, if the intensity of policies continues or self-discipline among enterprises expands further, coal production may decrease in the short term, providing upward potential for coal prices. It is recommended to continue monitoring the pace of implementation and regional differences. Overall, we believe that under the guidance of the "anti-overwork" policy, "overproduction inspections" will continue to drive industry self-discipline, leading to a contraction in coal supply. Given the time lag between policy expectations and implementation, it is suggested to weaken excessive focus on financial statements in the short term and strengthen evaluation of the progress and breadth of the "anti-overwork" policy, with a focus on the improvement in liquidity and risk appetite driving valuation certainty, seizing coal investment opportunities, and embracing the new upward cycle in the coal industry.