Huatai Securities: Both M2 and M1 growth exceeded expectations, possibly partially reflecting the accelerated entry of residents' wealth management into the stock market.

date
16/08/2025
review the currency and credit/social financing data for July: The growth of money supply in July, including M1 and M2, exceeded market expectations, but new loans and social financing were lower than expected, reflecting the impact of various factors such as changes in financing structure, seasonal factors, disturbance from bond issuance, and changes in residents' financial behavior. The higher-than-expected growth of M2 and M1 may partly reflect the acceleration of residents' financial assets entering the stock market. When residents redeem financial products, funds will return from off-balance sheet to on-balance sheet in residents' demand deposits, which will in turn drive up the growth rate of M1. When funds flow into the stock market, residents' demand deposits will be converted into securities company client margin funds, i.e. from residents' demand deposits in M1 to non-bank deposits in M2.