Huatai Securities: Coal-fired power generation in July is expected to maintain positive growth momentum.

Huatai Securities research report indicates that based on high-frequency indicators such as coal consumption, water inflow, and announcements from sample companies, the national electricity generation in July 2025 is estimated to increase by +3.2% to 924.9 billion kWh. We forecast that the electricity generation of thermal power, hydropower, wind power, and nuclear power will increase by +1.1%, -1.8%, and +27.3% to 581.1 billion kWh, 163.4 billion kWh, and 180.4 billion kWh, respectively. As peak summer approaches in July, China's electricity production and demand show high convergence. Thermal power and hydropower play a major supporting role as base load power sources. The output of hydropower has improved significantly compared to June, and we believe that the year-on-year decline in hydropower generation in July may narrow. Although the recovery of hydropower output may have some crowding-out effect on thermal power, the electricity demand is also boosted by the historical high temperatures and continuous peak loads in summer. Therefore, we believe that the electricity generation of thermal power will continue to maintain positive growth momentum in July.