Institution: Core CPI data has lowered the possibility of interest rate cuts in September, but not as much as the market expected.

date
13/08/2025
Ben Laidler, head of stock strategy at Bradesco BBI, said that overall data was slightly lower than expected, which brought great relief to the market. On the surface, this confirms the overwhelming consensus in the market for a rate cut by the Fed in September, but we remain cautious about it. Looking at the core data, it may not be as clear-cut as the market imagines. We believe that this report may not be as good as initially expected by the market. We will get more information at the Jackson Hole Symposium, where Powell will provide some guidance on the policy direction for September. The market continues to overwhelmingly expect a rate cut in September. But the likelihood of a rate cut is not as high as the market imagines. If there is no rate cut in September, the market will be very disappointed.