U.S. CPI Outlook: Jefferies believes there is a downside risk to U.S. core CPI.

Most analysts expect the core CPI in the United States to increase by 0.3% month-on-month in July, while JF Group predicts it to be 0.246%, which seems somewhat anomalous. JF Group stated that prices for furniture, clothing, and entertainment goods are not expected to continue rising in July; although facing tariff pressure, second-hand car prices have remained basically unchanged, however seasonal adjustments may reflect a slight decline. At the same time, JF Group predicts that the overall CPI will increase by 0.172% month-on-month, lower than the market expectation of 0.2%. Considering that the data will be rounded, this difference may seem small, but JF Group believes that there may be downside risks in the CPI report. Airfares remain an uncertain factor, and if basic economy ticket prices remain unchanged, seasonal adjustments may still lead to a 2.5% increase in airfares. If this does not happen, the overall CPI growth rate in July may drop to 0.1%.