Guosheng Securities: With the background of policy crackdown on overproduction, it is highly likely to confirm the bottom of coking coal.

date
12/08/2025
Guosheng Securities released a research report stating that the policy notification requires that annual raw coal production must not exceed the announced production capacity, and monthly raw coal production must not exceed 10% of the announced production capacity. The bank had previously mentioned that "deep into the quagmire of price decline for a long time, the market continues to explore the bottom fruitlessly, and sentiments have reached rock bottom. The darkness before dawn is particularly agonizing. However, the opportunity for a turning point is emerging from the cracks, with some production capacity already incurring losses, cost support gradually revealing itself, only waiting for the policy rainfall to revive". This clampdown on overproduction is the policy rainfall mentioned, marking the first time since the peak in coal prices from 2021 to 2022 that certain measures have been taken on the supply side, providing the necessary conditions for coal prices to bottom out and reverse.