Dongwu Securities: Predicts that the year-on-year PPI will steadily rise to around -1.5% within the year, but achieving a positive growth still requires waiting.

East China Securities research report stated that we predict that the year-on-year PPI will steadily rise to around -1.5% within the year, but turning positive still requires waiting. Currently, the 10-year national bond is fluctuating at a low of 1.6%, with short-term adjustment pressure coming from a slight rebound in commodity prices, but it is difficult to drive a trend bear market without demand stimulation. The rebound in the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock needs to see the rise in corporate profits brought by the anti-"involution" policies from the supply side, as well as the increase in household income expectations and leverage ratios. In the long term, although "anti-involution" is a supply-side policy, the policy approach is ultimately through the improvement of corporate profits, driving the increase in wages and land prices, which can then be transmitted to demand, leading to a real turning point in bond interest rates.