The momentum of the rebound of the US dollar is expected to be short-lived.
Due to speculative short positions being closed, and with the slowdown of the US economy, its fiscal prospects will further deteriorate, the main trend of the dollar is expected to continue downward for a longer period of time. The US dollar index is in the process of another failed attempt at a rebound. This is the second attempt in recent weeks to rebound from the low point in early July, but it has been blocked. Given that the fundamental outlook of the dollar will continue to be under pressure, this situation may become the norm in the short term. Short positions in the US dollar had once been overcrowded, so the appearance of a rebound is only a matter of time, not if it will happen. According to the position data of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, speculators' short positions in US dollar futures were quite large. Although the overall dollar still has a net short position, short positions in developed market currencies such as the euro and pound have been closed out, and current positions have once again turned to a net long position. Speculators still hold a net short position against the US dollar against emerging market currencies, but in terms of the US dollar index, only developed market currencies are the key influencing factors.
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