Gold, impacted by tariffs, may not immediately recover its status as a safe-haven tool.

After the speech at the White House, the New York futures surged last week, setting a record premium relative to London futures. Unexpectedly, since then, the tariff gap between 100-ounce and 1-kilogram gold bars has halved, officials suggested a reversal. However, before the situation is fully clarified, fund flows and trading liquidity may be affected, weakening the reliability of gold as a safe haven tool. When the safe-haven status of gold is under attack, its recovery often depends less on the attack itself and more on the macro background. For example, when liquidity pressure collapsed prices in March 2020, ultra-loose monetary policy and a sharp drop in real yields triggered a comprehensive rebound within a month. This is in stark contrast to the so-called taper tantrum of 2013, when rising real rates kept gold prices under pressure for years. Finally, looking back at the early 1980s, when the Fed, led by Volcker, implemented a massive tightening policy, gold entered a bear market that lasted for 10 years. The current situation does not align with a pattern of rapid rebound. Real yields remain positive and the Fed is resisting pressure to cut rates, limiting the policy tailwinds that typically drive gold higher during a crisis. This could lead precious metals down a path more similar to 2013 rather than 2020, meaning that a brief rebound may occur unless the economy slows enough to lower real rates. If this happens and the pressure on the Fed to cut rates increases, gold may regain its safe haven appeal. Otherwise, traders may find themselves without a clear anchor, especially as the yen, franc, dollar, and U.S. Treasuries have also lost their defensive roles this year.