CITIC Securities: If the US-Russia talks only reach consensus on a short-term ceasefire, the impact on major asset classes may be reflected as short-term emotional reactions.

The Citic Securities research report indicates that the US and Russian presidents may hold talks on August 15th, and a key turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be imminent. Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine may need to proceed step by step, focusing on issues such as ceasefire, territorial control, lifting sanctions on Russia, post-war security arrangements in Ukraine, and US strategic interests in Europe. The upcoming meeting between the US and Russian presidents may prioritize short-term goals such as a ceasefire, with other goals subject to further observation. For major asset classes, if the US-Russia talks only reach consensus on a short-term ceasefire, the impact on major asset classes is more likely to be short-term emotional reactions, such as a temporary decrease in geopolitical risk premiums for gold, oil, and the US dollar, or temporary upward trends in equity assets like European and US stocks. However, if substantial progress is made on issues like lifting sanctions on Russia, it could have a more substantial impact on major asset classes, such as disruptions on the supply side of certain commodities.