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Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that based on the performance of Cathay Pacific Airlines in the first half of this year, the net profit forecasts for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been lowered by 7%, 5%, and 7% respectively, mainly reflecting a decrease in passenger revenue forecasts partially offset by improvements in cost control; at the same time, capital expenditure forecasts have been raised. The report indicates that if demand for routes in Japan and Thailand recovers better than expected, which could support revenue performance, they may shift to a more positive view. The outlook for the US-China trade relations is also a factor that could affect the momentum of the freight business. Additionally, considering that fuel costs make up about 30% of Cathay Pacific's total costs, the trend in oil prices is also an important indicator to monitor. Given the uncertainties in the operational outlook, Morgan Stanley maintains a "market-perform" rating for Cathay Pacific Airlines, with a dividend yield of 7% potentially limiting downside risks, and a target price lowered from 12.1 Hong Kong dollars to 10.8 Hong Kong dollars.
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