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Goldman Sachs published a research report pointing out that both Xinyi Group and Fuyao Glass have issued profit warnings significantly below expectations. Although the stock prices of solar glass companies covered since April have risen reflecting market anticipation of supply contraction and price increases under anti-monopoly policies, the bank believes that industry profitability pressure will deepen further in the second half of this year and next year. The bank has lowered its average selling price forecast for the third quarter of this year to next year by 9% to 20% to 10 to 11 RMB per square meter to reflect worsening supply and demand in the second half of the year and continuous deflation of raw material prices, and expects a deeper decline in glass demand in the fourth quarter. Based on forecasts of reduced effective capacity, price declines, and rising costs, the bank has lowered its EBITDA forecasts for Fuyao Glass and Xinyi Group by 58% and 73% for 2025 to 2026, and by an average of 2% for 2027 to 2030. The bank has slightly reduced the H-share target price of Fuyao Glass from 6.7 HKD to 6.6 HKD, the A-share target price from 10.3 HKD to 10.2 HKD, and maintained the target price of Xinyi Group at 1.9 HKD, all with a "sell" rating unchanged.
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