Non-farm data triggers August event risks, Jackson Hole Annual Meeting becomes the focus.

Analyst Divyang Shah stated that the US non-farm payrolls report for July not only fell below expectations, but also came with a significant revision to the previous figures. However, this is not a typical signal of a recession, but more like the economy stagnating under the influence of tariffs, waiting for the uncertainty in policies to dissipate. The biggest impact of the data is the rekindling of expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve the September and October meetings are once again possible timing points: currently the market is pricing in an 80% probability of a rate cut in September and over 75% in October. The December FOMC meeting had already been taken into consideration, and now the probability of a rate cut has also risen to 80%. August was originally expected to be a month of low volatility, but now it seems that significant event risks are on the horizon, with the upcoming inflation report being particularly crucial, and the more important event being the Jackson Hole central bank symposium.