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The import data for the United States in May shows that the actual tariff rate is 8.3%, which is significantly lower than the Morgan Stanley benchmark forecast of 10% to 15%, but it is expected to trend towards the forecasted levels in June and July. The main reasons for the actual tariff rate being lower than expected are transportation delays, higher-than-expected imports from Mexico and Canada under the USMCA agreement, and a significant decrease in imports from emerging markets. As June and July data may show an increase in effective tariff rates, the transmission effect on US inflation will become more apparent. Historically, the actual impact of tariffs on consumer prices typically appears 3 to 5 months after implementation, while the ripple effect on economic growth usually emerges 3 months later. Morgan Stanley expects that tariffs in the coming months may lead to a 1% increase in prices, which will gradually dissipate as demand weakens.