Huatai Securities: Whether the Fed will cut interest rates in September depends mainly on the economic data for July and August.

Huatai Securities research report indicated that in the early morning of July 31st Beijing time, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% as scheduled, with two Fed officials voting against it. The resolution statement adjusted to a more dovish tone, but Powell's speech did not provide guidance for a rate cut in September, leaning towards a hawkish stance. In terms of fundamentals, Powell emphasized that the job market is relatively stable but acknowledged downside risks. Regarding rate guidance, Powell did not give a clear indication of a rate cut in September, emphasizing that the decision depends on future data. Looking ahead, whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September mainly depends on the economic data in July and August. It is possible that the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice between September and December. However, if employment and inflation data are stronger than expected, expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year may be further withdrawn. In the near future, attention will be focused on the new non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday.