Analysts warn that there may be an oversupply of nearly 200 million barrels in the second half of the year, but this has not been reflected in market pricing yet.

Currently, strong demand and low inventory support prices, but analysts like Francisco Blanch from Bank of America and Natasha Kaneva from JPMorgan warn that there may be a supply glut of nearly 200 million barrels by the second half of 2025, but this has not yet been reflected in market pricing. Despite oil prices holding steady around $70 per barrel this summer, major organizations such as the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration warn that the supply glut will continue to worsen, with global oil supply surplus expected to reach 2 million barrels per day by 2026 - the risk of a price drop later this year will increase as OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries ease production cuts.