Policy expectations continue to ferment, and main contracts for coking coal and polysilicon are rising strongly.

During the daytime trading on July 23, the main contracts of domestic commodity futures mostly closed higher, with the main contract of coking coal hitting the limit up and polysilicon main contract rising significantly. By the end of the trading day at 15:00, coking coal was up by 11%, polysilicon was up by over 5%, coke was up by over 3%, and pork, red dates, and pulp were up by over 1%, while Shanghai gold, silicon, iron, and apples saw slight increases. China National Cereals, Oils, and Foodstuffs Corporation Futures stated that recently there has been a substantial contraction in the supply of coking coal, and the "anti-insufficient" policy has amplified expectations of supply contraction. With the dual support of supply contraction and demand resilience, the coking coal market has risen rapidly, with continuous release of optimistic sentiment. Prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the short term. Nanhu Futures believes that disruption in coal prices has driven up the production costs of polysilicon, and with macroeconomic disruption still present, attention should be paid to the situation of polysilicon warehouse receipts in the future. Guotou Futures believes that behind the recent rise in polysilicon futures prices, in addition to the strong performance of industrial silicon driving up raw material costs, the core lies in the continued fermentation of market expectations of related policies. From a fundamental perspective, high inventory levels remain the main factor restricting the rise in polysilicon prices, but in the short term, driven by policy sentiment, the market is showing characteristics of "price increase to clear inventory." Subsequent focus should be on the pace of price increases in the battery sheet and component sectors.