Nomura's global macro research director: Trump has difficulty influencing the Federal Reserve's policy.

NOMURA's global macro research director and co-director of global market research So Bowen recently said in an interview with reporters that Trump said the federal funds rate should be lowered by 300 basis points, and he threatened to appoint a shadow chairman, which he could do at any time. Trump has repeatedly stated that due to low inflation, the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates. So Bowen predicts that in the next three months, if the US inflation rate rises, Trump will find it difficult to criticize Powell, and he may appoint a shadow chairman of the Federal Reserve, even if the shadow chairman is not currently the chairman, he/she can say, "Inflation has risen, but this is just temporary, and next year there will be a significant rate cut." The market will also consider the views of the future chairman, making Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee's work even more difficult. So Bowen analyzed that the US government only has a four-year term, so there is a short-term incentive to try to do as much as possible during this time, which may trigger inflation. People hope that the Federal Reserve will be independent of the government and focus more on long-term development, avoiding short-term stimulus to economic growth, which could lead to permanent inflation problems. Although Trump has a very negative attitude towards the Federal Reserve, especially towards Chairman Powell, So Bowen believes that Trump is unlikely to influence the Fed's policies as the Fed has many safeguards and a strong institutional foundation, making it difficult for the US government to truly control monetary policy. On the one hand, whoever Trump chooses must be approved by the Senate. On the other hand, monetary policy is not solely determined by the Fed Chairman, as the Federal Open Market Committee has 19 members, 12 of whom have voting rights. Even if Trump appoints a Fed Chairman who acts in line with his wishes, it is unclear whether this is enough to influence the entire Federal Open Market Committee.