CPI Night: Two Key Passages for Euro/Dollar

On July 15th at 20:30, the June core CPI in the United States will set the short-term direction for the US dollar; if it is higher than 0.3% on a month-on-month basis, the dollar may rise again, and EUR/USD could break below the 21-day moving average of 1.1665 and test 1.1631. If the data is lower than expected, concerns about tariff inflation will ease, and the euro may have a chance to return above 1.1750 and challenge 1.1800. FedWatch shows that the probability of a rate cut in September has decreased from 65% at the beginning of the month to 60%, as tariffs and strong non-farm data make the Fed more cautious.