Lates News

The CITIC Securities research report stated that government bond issuance in the social financing sector supported a slight increase in the growth rate of social financing in June. Looking ahead, with the main line of debt-to-equity conversion switching to maintain growth, and the traditional accelerated issuance of government bonds around the middle of the year, there may still be support for the performance of social financing. In terms of credit, due to factors at the mid-year point and the impact of a low base in the same period last year, banks have significantly increased lending to the supply side, such as short-term loans to the public, while the issuance of medium and long-term loans has remained relatively stable compared to the same period last year. We believe that under the background of trade friction, there is still a wait-and-see sentiment for corporate financing. Additionally, combining with real estate sales data, we judge that current mortgage demand is still relatively low, and retail recovery awaits the continued implementation of previous comprehensive policies and subsequent incremental policies. On the deposit side, the improvement in M1 is mainly driven by the low base and the repair of corporate funding, leading to an upward trend in M2, reflecting the stability of bank liabilities, which helps to sustain a loose liquidity environment. Furthermore, at the press conference on July 14, the central bank explicitly stated that "technology innovation + service consumption" is the dual focus of monetary policy. CITIC Securities believes that structural easing will become the main theme of the next stage of policy, and interest rate cuts and other total policies may remain cautious in the short term, which will help maintain a stable credit environment, but in the long term, attention still needs to be paid to the transmission effect and the pace of real economy recovery.