Citic Securities: Structured easing will become the main theme of the next stage of policies.

CITIC Securities research report stated that in terms of social financing, government bond issuance supported a slight increase in social financing growth in June. Looking ahead, with the main focus shifting to stabilizing growth, combined with the traditional acceleration of government bond issuance around the middle of the year, the performance of social financing may still be supported. In terms of credit, due to factors at the mid-year point and the impact of low base figures from the same period last year, banks have increased lending on the supply side, with a significant increase in lending for short-term loans to the public, while lending for medium and long-term loans has remained relatively stable. We believe that under the background of trade friction, enterprise financing sentiment remains cautious. In addition, considering real estate sales data, we believe that mortgage demand is still relatively low, and the recovery at the retail end awaits the continued implementation of previous comprehensive policies and subsequent incremental policies. As for deposits, the improvement in M1 is mainly driven by low base figures and the recovery of corporate funding conditions, while the increase in M2 reflects the stability of the liability side of banks, which helps to maintain loose liquidity conditions. In addition, the People's Bank of China clearly stated at a press conference on July 14 that "technology innovation + service consumption" is the dual focus of monetary policy. CITIC Securities believes that structural easing will become the main theme of the next stage of policies, with interest rate cuts and other general policies likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode, which may help stabilize the credit environment in the short term, but long-term attention is still needed on the transmission effects and the pace of real economy recovery.