The tariff arbitrage window closes and copper prices fall for the second consecutive day.
Copper prices fell for the second consecutive trading day on Monday, as the imminent imposition of tariffs by the United States caused a virtual halt in the trend of traders shipping copper to the U.S. and led to a significant decrease in cancelled warehouse receipts in Asia. London Metal Exchange three-month futures fell by 0.4% on Monday, following inventory data showing a reduction of 25,100 tons in delivery applications at exchange-registered warehouses, the largest decrease since March 2019. President Donald Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, meaning traders no longer have time to take advantage by shipping metal from Europe and Asia to the U.S. Record amounts of copper have been shipped to the U.S. in recent months, causing supply tightness in other markets and driving up key LME differentials significantly by the end of June, which have now fallen significantly. Currently, LME spot copper prices are approximately $62/ton lower than three-month futures, the largest discount since April. On June 26, the differential was close to a premium of $320. Transporting copper from LME Asian warehouses to major metal storage locations in the U.S. such as New Orleans usually takes over four weeks, meaning new shipments will not arrive before August 1. As of 5:50 pm London time, LME copper closed at $9,619 per ton. Aluminum, nickel, and zinc prices also dropped.
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